The ceasefire in eastern Ukraine that takes effect today offers a glimmer of hope that this conflict – which has so far claimed over 5,000 lives and plunged relations between Russia and the West to a new low – will be contained and perhaps one day actually resolved.
The ceasefire was announced last Thursday after talks in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, German Chancellor Angela Markel and French President François Hollande. Ukraine’s pro-Russian rebels, who did not participate in the Minsk talks (they didn’t need to as Putin was there), accepted the deal.
The agreement, reached after 17 hours of negotiations, includes a ceasefire which began at midnight today, the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the conflict zone (to be completed within two weeks of the ceasefire) and the release of all prisoners. Mr Poroshenko said Ukraine would establish control of its international border – a key demand by the Ukrainians – by the end of the year.
However, key unresolved issues include the status of Debaltseve, a government-held town surrounded by rebels which has witnessed fierce fighting recently. And further talks are to be held on self-rule in parts of Donetsk and Luhansk that are separatist regions.
After the agreement was reached, Merkel said she was cautiously optimistic, stating: “Concrete steps, of course, have to be taken, and we will still face major obstacles. But, on balance, I can say what we have achieved gives significantly more hope than if we had achieved nothing.”
There were concessions agreed to by both sides. In a victory for Ukraine, the rebel regions, which last year held their own elections – not recognised by Kiev and the West – now must hold a new poll under Ukrainian law. On the other hand, in a concession to Russia, Ukrainian control over its border with Russia in rebel-controlled areas will only be completed by the end of 2015 if Kiev implements constitutional reform giving wide powers to the eastern regions, including the right to form their own police force and trade freely with Russia.
Merkel and Hollande certainly deserve credit for their intense diplomatic efforts which led to this ceasefire, which included meeting Putin in Moscow before the Minsk negotiations. The situation in Ukraine was spiralling out of control and risked turning into a regional war, so the diplomatic initiative of Germany and France was very timely.
One cannot fail to mention the fact that Britain has kept a very low profile in this conflict, which I hope is not a reflection of the UK’s slow disengagement from global affairs. However, it does show that Britain under Prime Minister David Cameron is no longer a leading player in the EU when it comes to foreign policy, and this is a pity.
It’s no wonder that Pope Francis recently described the Ukrainian conflict as a scandalous war between Christians
Britain, after all, was one of three countries (with Russia and the US) that guaranteed Ukraine’s territorial integrity in a 1994 agreement in exchange for Kiev giving up its nuclear weapons. Of course, one can also point a finger at the US for not being part of the Minsk group, but the Franco-German proposal was an EU initiative, and US Secretary of State John Kerry was often engaged in negotiations with both Russia and Ukraine over this conflict.
Washington, furthermore, has been actively considering supplying Ukraine with defensive weapons should diplomacy fail.
While this agreement is without doubt an important step in the right direction, it does not guarantee an end to the conflict, and a lot will depend on how faithful both sides are to the deal, and crucially, how Russia behaves. After all, this pact is very similar to the first Minsk ceasefire agreement (known as the Minsk Protocol) signed last September, which fell apart soon after it was signed.
Unfortunately, Russia has, throughout this conflict, continuously lied about the presence of its own troops fighting alongside the rebels in Ukraine. It has also lied about the fact that it has supplied the rebels with military equipment, including tanks, artillery and air defence systems. This does not augur well for the success of this latest deal, but we’ll just have to wait and see. Russia should now, if it really wants to be constructive, withdraw its troops and equipment back to within its borders.
In the meantime it is important that the Ukrainian government is given economic support by Brussels and Washington to prevent its economy from collapsing. The news that the International Monetary Fund has agreed to provide Ukraine with €15.5 billion to help it support economic reforms is very positive indeed.
Also, if Russia does not live up to its commitments made in Minsk, there will undoubtedly have to be consequences. Sanctions on Moscow will have to be increased – its economy has already suffered due to the sanctions imposed so far – and the US and Europe will at some stage have to consider providing defensive weapons to Ukraine.
Washington and Brussels, however, must be equally firm with Ukraine about giving autonomy to the eastern regions of the country, and Nato membership for Kiev should be out of the question for the foreseeable future.
Hopefully though, all sides will stick to this agreement, EU and US sanctions against Russia will start to be lifted and Moscow will once against play a constructive role in international affairs – which is so important for international peace and stability.
When one thinks of it, this war – between two supposedly friendly Slav nations, is ridiculous, and it’s no wonder that Pope Francis recently described the conflict as a scandalous “war between Christians”.
Besides being ridiculous it is also very dangerous. Last month, former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev warned that nuclear war could result from the escalating tensions between Russia and Europe over Ukraine.
In an interview in Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine, Gorbachev said that a major conflict could take place and that would “unavoidably lead to a nuclear war”.
“We won’t survive the coming years if someone loses their nerve in this overheated situation,” Gorbachev said.
Let’s hope the situation now calms down and a new period of common sense is ushered in.