In past years, we have been provided with polls that later proved to be accurate to the decimal. These polls raised their credibility with repetitive successful predictions. Confidence has been raised and political parties now both know that when such polls are out (irrespective of their in-house surveys), they need to be reckoned with.
Over the last eight weeks, two opinion polls were published. Just before Christmas, The Malta Independent on Sunday published the results of a survey conducted on its behalf by a local company and, a few weeks ago, another poll was conducted by Maltatoday.
The first survey used a random sample of 300. Although not making any mention of the methodology employed to conduct it, the poll correctly reveals, among other things, a comfortable lead for the Prime Minister over the Opposition leader in the trust ratings.
Similar findings were recorded in the second survey with a random sample of 500 respondents, conducted by Maltatoday. According to the latest poll, Joseph Muscat enjoys a 15 percentage point advantage over the PN leader. Needless to say this made headlines the following morning and the days that followed.
But beyond the sensational headlines, the second poll provides rich information about emerging patterns such as the voters’ trust preferences on the basis of their respective educational backgrounds. While Muscat is very strong among the electorate with primary level of education, Simon Busuttil has an 11 point lead over the Prime Minister among graduates.
This is very significant. Those who have tertiary level of education are generally analytical in their approach. Graduates do not take a position unless they have evaluated an argument. They are the thinking population and, therefore, their decision to trust Busuttil more than Muscat is based on rational belief.
With this category of voters, Muscat’s style of presenting a nicely-wrapped but weak argument does not work.
Graduates look for substance rather than rhetoric. The PN leader is definitely making inroads with this category of voters.
This is good news for the party in opposition. In the last election, graduates, most of whom are traditional Nationalist voters, voted for Labour in their masses.
They believed Muscat’s electoral promises. The ‘Malta tagħna lkoll’ (Malta for all) mantra was music to everyone’s ears, including graduates.
Those who voted Labour for the first time (including many graduates) have become popularly known as switchers, a term used to this day in local polls.
The PN must understand better the conditions of the political game
The Maltatoday survey indicates that the PN is gaining ground with those who switched to Labour in the last general election.
According to the same survey, 55 per cent of switchers appear to be unwilling to vote Labour next time round. I am led to believe that there is a correlation between Busuttil’s strong trust rate among graduates and the voting intentions of switchers.
The latest survey also shows that while the leader of the Opposition’s approval rating is slowly increasing, the Prime Minister’s approval rating is in a constant downward trend. Whether this trend continues remains to be seen.
Should Busuttil and the PN take comfort in this? Definitely not. There are other aspects of the survey which the PN needs to address.
To start with, the PN must build a strategy to reach those with primary level of education. Why is this category of voters trusting Muscat in their masses? Could it be that Busuttil’s arguments are making a lot of sense with graduates but are not clear enough to the rest? Is his style and presentation appealing only to the thinking population?
Since becoming leader of the PN, Busuttil has focused on substance in his modus operandi.
He is always well prepared and his arguments are always strong, well researched and without unnecessary rhetoric. On the other hand, the Prime Minister has always concentrated on populist rhetoric rather than content.
The PN should embark on a mission to present itself and its arguments better. While populism should never feature, the PN needs to assure itself that its message is reaching everyone not just a segment of society.
Politics are built on perceptions. A perception is just that… a perception but the PN must understand better the conditions of the political game.
While resisting becoming a populist party, the PN must strive to become a popular political force once again by also addressing primary level educated voters.
In past months, the PN has steadfastly gained kudos for offering an alternative solution to the Labour government. The leader has brought new stamina that energised everyone in the party and this momentum will continue to gain force.
I invite party supporters to remain resolute and look at the future with confidence and optimism.
The party leadership, on the other hand, must continue to decipher and take note of opinion polls.
Herman Schiavone is a Nationalist electoral candidate.