In 2015 the international community, particularly the US and its coalition partners, will have to reassess its strategy towards the Islamic State, which still controls vast areas of Iraqi and Syrian territory, and which continues to disgust the world with its acts of genocide and crimes against humanity.

Will there be a need for ground troops, or at least special forces, to help defeat IS? It may come to that, but that alone will certainly not be enough. The process of Shi’ite-Sunni reconciliation in Iraq will have to be strengthened, and there will need to be a new way of looking at the Syrian conflict.

In Syria a strong dose of realpolitik is needed; President Bashar al-Assad’s brutal regime is unlikely to be defeated and the immediate priority has to be providing aid to the millions of displaced people, both inside and outside Syria, as well as defeating Islamic State in that country. Countries like Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey, meanwhile, will not be able to continue hosting the millions of refugees from Syria, should the situation not stabilise.

Some sort of dialogue with Assad will probably have to take place but Russia and Iran, Syria’s only allies, will need to show more responsibility in this conflict and exert pressure on Assad to be more flexible. The US, on the other hand, will need to encourage some soul-searching by its ally Saudi Arabia in an attempt to assess whether it has contributed to the rise of jihadism in the world.

The Western world, particularly Europe, will have to evaluate why a number of its Muslim citizens are joining the ranks of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, and why some have chosen to commit acts of terrorism in their host countries.

Last Wednesday’s terrible atrocity in Paris when gunmen attacked the office of French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, killing 12 people, is a case in point. Security will have to be re-evaluated, but Western society must not fall into the trap set by the terrorists and go for a knee-jerk reaction against Muslim communities. What al-Qaeda and Islamic State want is a ‘clash of civilisations’ and we must be careful not to allow this to happen. Muslim leaders in Europe, on the other hand, must continue to vocal in their condemnation of Islamist extremism.

Last year saw a sharp deterioration in relations between Russia and the West, primarily due to Moscow’s annexation of Crimea and its support for separatists in eastern Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far not shown much flexibility in this conflict – even though the EU and US economic sanctions are clearly hurting Moscow.

French President François Hollande recently stated: “Putin does not want to annex eastern Ukraine. What he wants is to remain influential. What we want is that he respects the territorial integrity of Ukraine.” Trying to arrive at a formula which respects both these wishes, as well as offering Putin a possible face-saver, is a priority for the West.

The eurozone could well be plunged into a new crisis after the result of Greece’s election on January 25, which has to take place following the Greek Parliament’s failure to elect a new President. The far-left Syriza party is leading in the polls, and this may well be the most significant election in Greece since the restoration of democracy in 1974.

Although Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras no longer talks about exiting the eurozone – he talks about a renegotiation of Greek debt – it is doubtful to what extent Greece’s creditors, namely the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and European Financial Stability Facility, will agree to this. Furthermore, I think it is now clear that the EU is actually prepared to contemplate a Greek exit from the eurozone, so should Tspiras win the election he should not be too ambitious in his demands.

The UK votes in a general election in May and most polls show Labour with a slight lead over the Conservatives, but with not enough support to win an outright parliamentary majority. Another hung Parliament is a very real possibility and the populist Ukip (which polls show has the support of around 14 per cent of the electorate) is likely to take many votes from the Conservatives.

The polls also show, however, that the Conservatives are still the most trusted party when it comes to managing the economy, so if the economic figures continue to improve, this could boost the Tories electoral chances.

Another coalition government – whether the same Conservative-Liberal Democrat one or a Labour-Liberal Democrat pact – would probably be the best result for Britain, as the Conservatives can’t be trusted on Europe (they want an ‘in out’ referendum after major renegotiations), while Labour has poor economic credentials.

In France it is likely that Hollande’s low popularity ratings (due to his poor economic record) will not recover in the polls and he could actually withdraw his name from the 2017 presidential election. That would lead the Socialist Party to nominate somebody else, most likely either Prime Minister Manuel Valls or Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron.

The centre-right, on the other hand, could turn to former President Nicolas Sarkozy, who was recently elected leader of the UMP party, or to former prime ministers Alain Juppé or François Fillon. The major concern of all the candidates will be how to prevent far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen from advancing in the polls.

I think it is now clear that the EU is actually prepared to contemplate a Greek exit from the eurozone

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will continue to be the EU’s undisputed leader; she will also play a major role in trying to convince British Prime Minister David Cameron to tone down some of the UK’s demands for renegotiating some aspects of Britain’s membership of the bloc.

Spain votes in a parliamentary election in December in what is seen as a referendum on centre-right Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s economic policies. Spain has had to adopt tough austerity measures but the economy may be finally turning around, even though unemployment remains high. Both Rajoy’s Popular Party and the Opposition Socialist Party, however, face a challenge from a new leftwing party, Podemos, (‘We Can’), which picked up five seats in last year’s European election. Polls show that Podemos could win 60 seats in December, denying both main parties an outright majority.

The EU faces a number of important economic and political challenges this year. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, European Council President Donald Tusk and the Latvian and Luxembourg EU presidencies will need to focus on reviving the eurozone economy, accommodating some of Britain’s requests regarding returning some powers to London, having a more unified European foreign and security policy, convincing member states to play their part in tackling irregular migration and building an energy union.

In the US it will be interesting to see how President Barack Obama deals with the new Republican-controlled Congress which takes office later this month. Obama’s foreign policy agenda is unlikely to be greatly affected by Congress, although the Republicans could prove to be difficult in removing sanctions against Iran should a nuclear accord be reached with Teheran.

The Republicans might also be reluctant to agree to a full removal of the US embargo against Cuba, after Obama’s announcement last month of his intention to normalise relations with Cuba, a historic milestone which could lead to interesting developments this year. Domestically, Obama will have to tread a careful path and compromise with the Republicans, but I believe he will use his right to issue executive orders if he thinks this is in the country’s interest.

In North Africa, hopefully, Tunisia will continue along its path of democracy, reconciliation and mutual respect between secularists and Islamists. Its success will send a strong signal to many Arab countries in turmoil that violence should be replaced with dialogue and compromise. I am not too confident Libya’s fragile situation will improve, but hope that the international community will make more of an effort to stabilise the situation before the country descends into full blown civil war.

In Egypt, the situation will remain volatile and the Sinai-based insurgency led by the extremist group Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, which is affiliated to Islamic State, shows no sign of ending. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s decision to ban the Muslim Brotherhood, meanwhile, will undermine any chance of reconciliation and long-term stability in Egypt.

A nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers (the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) this year would be a huge diplomatic prize and has the potential to change the dynamics of the Middle East and make Iran a force for stability in the region. Hopefully all sides will show a degree of flexibility and an accord will be reached.

Nothing substantial is expected to happen vis-à-vis the Middle East peace process until after the March elections in Israel. Hopefully, a more flexible alternative to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be elected, although this cannot be taken for granted. A recent deal between Israel’s Labour Party and a small centre-right party headed by Tzipi Livni – who was sacked as Justice Minister by Netanyahu in the outgoing government – may offer some hope.

With the bulk of Nato troops out of Afghanistan, it remains to be seen what level of security the Afghan security forces can provide. It also remains to be seen if a new era of cooperation will emerge between Afghanistan, Pakistan and India in the fight against Islamic extremism, following last month’s atrocity committed by the Pakistani Taliban at an army school in Peshawar.

There will be elections in February in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, for President and Parliament. The new administration will have to think hard about how to tackle the growing insurgency by Boko Haram, which has continued to commit atrocities against civilians in its quest for the establishment of an Islamic State.

Elections will also be held in Turkey in June where Prime Minister Ahmet Davutogluof will face a challenge by Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, leader of the Opposition Republican People’s Party. However, the vote will effectively be a referendum on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who last year stepped down as Prime Minister to become Turkey’s first popularly elected President. Erdogan, who won three parliamentary elections in a row, has been criticised for not doing enough about Islamic State, for turning his back on the country’s secularism, for having an authoritarian streak and for spending recklessly (his new presidential palace is a case in point).

This year elections will also be held in Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Burma and Venezuela – where the unpopular authoritarian left-wing Socialist government of Nicolás Maduro is unlikely to allow itself to be defeated by the Opposition.

There will be two very important global summits at the end of the year, which I hope will be successful, namely the Paris climate change summit in November and the UN Sustainable Goals summit in December. We can expect more progress in eradicating the Ebola virus from West Africa and more irrational behaviour from North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un.

The question is how much longer will China, which will continue to increase its influence on the global stage, continue to prop up the regime in Pyongyang?

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