Oil markets saw volatile trading in Asia yesterday as Brent prices first fell to a five-and-a-half year low after the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its outlook and then rose on hopes of improving manufacturing data.
Brent futures fell to near $60 per barrel after the IEA forecast further price falls and OPEC’s chief on Sunday defended the group’s decision not to cut its output target, and although prices picked up later in volatile trading yesterday, most analysts were cutting their outlooks.
“Oil prices may move below $60 per barrel in the near term,” Barclays Bank said although it added that “this is not sustainable in the long run, as it would place considerable strain on the cost curve of the unconventional supply system required to meet demand requirements in 2016 and 2017.”
Barclays said it therefore expected Brent to average $67 per barrel in the first half of 2015 and $78 in the second half. Analysts said that oil markets were oversupplied as a result of rising output being met by cooling demand.
“Softer global demand, coupled with unprecedented growth in supply are weighing on global oil indices, with prices falling to levels not seen since the global financial crisis,” National Australia Bank said yesterday.
National Australia Bank said it had cut its Brent forecast to an average $80 in the fourth quarter of 2014, $75 in the first quarter of 2015 and an average of $80 for all of next year.
Despite the weak outlook, oil prices recovered from their lows yesterday as some traders expected improving economic data to be published this week.
Brent for January delivery was at $62.35 a barrel at 0743 GMT, up half a dollar, but 60 cents below the intra-day high of $62.95 a barrel.
US crude for January delivery was trading at 58.25 a barrel, up 44 cents, after hitting a low of $56.25 earlier in the day – the lowest since May 2009.
“With preliminary manufacturing PMI scheduled to release this week, it may give some support to falling oil prices,” said Singapore-based Phillip Futures.
“Expectations for this month’s PMI are favourable, which should prevent a further drop for the week.
“Provided manufacturing PMI figures are favourable, we expect to see a slight recovery to $61.81 for WTI Feb ’15 and $63.26 for Brent February 2015 for this week,” it added.