The recent election of former French president Nicolas Sarkozy as head of the main centre-right Opposition UMP party, two months after announcing his political comeback, marks the first time a former French head of state has returned to frontline politics.
Sarkozy’s victory is widely seen as a stepping stone in his attempt to regain the presidency and defeat President François Hollande in the 2017 election. Sarkozy obtained 64.5 per cent of votes from party members, while the other two candidates, former agriculture minister Bruno Le Maire and Hervé Mariton received 29.2 per cent and 6.3 per cent of votes respectively.
The result for Sarkozy was a good one but not an astounding one, (when he was elected party leader in 2004 he had secured 85 per cent), which means he could face challengers in his party to be the UMP’s official candidate in the 2017 presidential election, such as former prime ministers Alain Juppé and François Fillon.
On his Facebook account after his election, Sarkozy wrote: “I’d like to thank all the UMP party members who had done me the honour of electing me to lead our political family. Their turnout, unprecedented in the history of our movement, is the best response to two years of internal quarrels and divisions. Now the time has come for action.”
Is Sarkozy the best man to defeat Hollande in two and half years’ time? He was defeated in the 2012 election mainly due to his brash personal style which irritated many Frenchmen, but also because during his term in office (during which he had to deal with the eurozone crisis) the jobless rate reached a very high level. Moreover, although he did preside over some limited reforms, his presidency certainly did not introduce any radical economic change, despite promising to do so in his 2007 election campaign.
Sarkozy’s fate in 2012 was effectively sealed when Marine Le Pen, the leader of the right-wing National Front, who received 17.9 per cent of the vote in the first round of voting, refused to endorse the President, and when François Bayrou, the centrist candidate who got 9.1 per cent of the vote in the first round, said he would vote for Hollande in the second round.
The far-right still presents a massive threat to Sarkozy and this is something the former president will have to consider as the 2017 election approaches. Will he turn further to the right to steal votes from the National Front? This, of course, risks turning away potential centrist and centre-left support for him.
France today is going through a massive economic crisis and President Hollande’s domestic policies have been disappointing. Unemployment is extremely high with 3.5 million people out of work, and the French economy is stagnating. Hollande is suffering from historically low poll ratings and a recent poll has shown that National Front leader Marie Le Pen would win 30 per cent of the vote in the first round of the French presidential election if this were held today. This is extremely worrying.
It is possible that Hollande will not stand for re-election in 2017, which will make it still possible for the Socialists to retain the presidency, only, however, if a reformist politician such as Manuel Valls, the Prime Minister, or Emmanuel Macron, the Economy Minister, is the party’s presidential candidate. If this is the case, it will be more difficult for Sarkozy to return to the Élysée. Both Juppé and Fillon, however, would make suitable presidential candidates for the centre-right, so Sarkozy’s candidacy should not be taken for granted. The crucial thing is for the centre-right candidate to be able to take on the challenge posed by the far right.