I read the article ‘Russia expects recession in 2015 as sanctions, oil prices bite’ (December 3). I have to applaud Russia for issuing a candid and probably accurate economic forecast. However, world conditions always fluctuate. If the northern hemisphere experiences a harsh winter, the prices of heating oil, kerosene, diesel and gasoline could spike upwards.

Even if that does not happen, there is still one ‘wildcard Vladimir Putin.

I am no admirer of Putin’s political philosophy and his hopes for a return to the ancient times of Russian glory and grandeur. However, he is a shrewd, cunning individual. If he is backed into an economic corner, he will become as ruthless as the proverbial ‘Russian bear’ and ‘bite back’ by using any tactic – military or political, or both – to put Western Europe and the US on the defensive.

If widespread discontent arises in Russia, he will quash it or use a ploy to flex Russian muscle with the hope of bringing his country out of any long-term recession.

The man does have a calculating mind. Unlike many current world leaders, I am sure that Putin has ‘contingency plans’. And the thought of a partial return to an aggressive ‘Imperial Russia’ is not so far-fetched. Personally, I favour the type of calm and reasonable management style of the former Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, who knew how to successfully negotiate with the West. However, even Gorbachev has admonished the West to not tempt Russia.

I have met Gorbachev and take him at his word. I have never met Putin but I am wise enough to be wary of his acts, intentions and policies. A cornered or desperate man is a dangerous man.

Putin may use schemes behind the scenes to garner support of equally vulnerable European nations in the hope that sheer force may pull him and Russia out of a jam.

 

 

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