Opec leader Saudi Arabia signalled yesterday it was unlikely to push for a major change in oil output at the producer group’s meeting this week, a day after Russia refused to cooperate in any production cut.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said he expected the oil market “to stabilise itself eventually” but did not comment on talks with Russia held on Tuesday, which produced no firm pledge from Moscow to help support flagging oil prices.

Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zangeneh said some Opec members, although not Iran itself, were gearing up for a battle over market share and insisted that non-Opec producers needed to participate in any Opec-led output cut.

“The most important thing for all of us is the unity and solidarity of Opec, and in this situation I believe we need to have the contribution of non-Opecproducers for managing the market,” Zangeneh told reporters.

“Some Opec members believe that this is the time where we need to defend market share... All the experts in the market believe we have oversupply in the market and next year we will have more oversupply,” he added.

Opec’s meeting today will be one of its most crucial in recent years, with oil prices having tumbled some 30 per cent since June to below $79 per barrel due to booming US shale oil output and slower global economic growth. Among the 12 members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Venezuela and Iraq have called for output cuts. Naimi has not commented on what the group should do.

Opec usually faces huge tensions from within but as talks over Iran’s nuclear programme ended with no breakthrough on Monday, most members felt relief they will not have to deal with a deluge of Iranian oil, currently hit by Western sanctions.

Non-Opec member Russia, which produces 10.5 million barrels per day (bpd) or 11 per cent of global oil, went to Tuesday’s meeting amid hints it might agree to cut output as it suffers from oil’s price fall and Western sanctions over Ukraine.

But as that meeting with Naimi and officials from Venezuela and non-Opec member Mexico ended, Russia’s most influential oil official, state firm Rosneft’s head Igor Sechin, emerged with a surprise message – Russia will not reduce output even if oil falls to $60 per barrel. Sechin added that he expected low oil prices to do more damage to producing nations with higher costs, in a clear reference to the shale boom in the US.

Many at Opec were taken by surprise by Sechin’s suggestion that Russia –in desperate need of oil prices above $100 per barrel to balance its budget – was ready for a price war.

Opec produces 30 million bpd, or a third of global oil. Its own publications have shown in recent months that global supply will exceed demand by more than 1 million bpd in the first half of next year.

While the statistics speak in favour of a cut, the build-up to the OPEC meeting today has seen one of the most heated debates in years about the next policy step for the group.

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