The protests taking place in Hong Kong present a huge challenge to China, perhaps the biggest political challenge Beijing has faced since the Tiananmen democracy movement in 1989.
The situation in Hong Kong also presents a challenge to the outside world, principally the West, over how to react to such protests and what the response should be if China decides to clamp down on the peaceful protesters.
The good news is that the protesters have accepted an offer of talks with the government, although these are now postponed, but hopefully a compromise will be found.
The world does not need another flashpoint at this point in time, but this does not mean that the international community should ignore the Hong Kong people’s legitimate aspirations for a genuine representative democracy. As usual, a balancing act is needed; one that recognises the importance of China on the global stage, but one that also encourages dialogue between the two sides and acknowledges that the people of Hong Kong do have justifiable concerns.
China assumed sovereignty over Hong Kong in 1997 following a 1984 agreement with Britain. It agreed to govern Hong Kong under the principle of ‘one country, two systems’, which gave the former British colony a high degree of autonomy, except in foreign policy and defence, for 50 years. Consequently, Hong Kong has its own legal system, and rights such as freedom of assembly and free speech are protected. Its capitalist system has also been maintained.
However, the protesters are accusing Beijing of going back on its word to give Hong Kong a genuine democracy.
The issue at stake is the fact that whoever runs for the position of chief executive, Hong Kong’s top leader, in 2017, will first have to be approved by a committee appointed by the Chinese government.
In a nutshell, voters will only have a choice from a list of two or three candidates selected by a pro-Beijing nominating committee.
There will have to be compromises made by both sides
Those protesting on the streets are also calling for the resignation of C.Y. Leung, the Bristol-educated chief executive of Hong Kong, a Beijing loyalist who has been in office since 2012. He was elected two years ago by a 1,200-member election committee (under the old system), the majority of who are pro-Beijing.
Mr Leung has made it clear that he will not resign, and on Thursday the government in Beijing expressed its full confidence in him. However, should the protests not fizzle out – if the talks between the two sides get nowhere – Mr Leung he will no doubt face a dilemma: should he use force to crush the demonstrators, perhaps even using troops from the People’s Liberation Army (like at Tiananmen Square)?
Such a course of action would surely harm Hong Kong’s reputation as a stable global financial centre and could lead to international repercussions against Beijing, which would undoubtedly lead to China being less cooperative on the global stage. That would be bad news for the world, especially at this delicate point in time where there is such a great need for international collaboration on a wide range of issues.
If, on the other hand, the protests continue indefinitely and no action is taken, this could lead to instability and harm the economy of Hong Kong. It is not clear how long the Communist authorities in China are willing to wait before doing something about the situation. Nor is it clear how long Beijing will continue to support Mr Leung if he fails to find a solution to this crisis.
There are no simple answers of course but Beijing does bear much responsibility for the state of affairs. It is true that the Chinese have accepted the principle of universal suffrage as envisaged in the Basic Law, the constitutional document of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China. However, the fact that candidates for the position of chief executive in the 2017 election have to be nominated by this Beijing- appointed committee makes a mockery of the concept of universal suffrage.
The only way forward is a genuine dialogue between the two sides, which will now hopefully take place. There will have to be compromises made by both sides, such as a promise by Beijing to extend future discussions on democracy in Hong Kong after 2017 as well as making the composition of the committee vetting candidates for the post of chief executive more representative of the people of Hong Kong. In return, the demonstrators should be asked to stop protesting and to withdraw their demand that Mr Leung must step down.