Hundreds of asylum seekers could be sent to their deaths should the Italian Mare Nostrum rescue mission be replaced by an operation by the EU’s border agency, security analysts have warned.

“We have noticed that smugglers are sending migrants on boats which are more precarious than ever before because they are relying on the Italians picking them up practically outside Libyan waters,” a security analyst told The Sunday Times of Malta.

The new EU Frontex operation, codenamed Triton, will not be going further than 30 to 40 miles from Maltese and Italian shores.

“Our intelligence suggests that smugglers will maintain their practice, at least for the first few weeks, to test the waters. They will literally send migrants to their deaths, knowing their boats will sink long before they reach Europe’s coastguard mission,” the source said.

The outlook was corroborated by multiple intelligence sources in Malta and Italy and tallies with statements made earlier this month by Frontex Executive Director Gil Arias Fernandez when he said people smugglers were exploiting the fact the Italians were operating close to Libya’s waters.

“Criminals, of course, know about Mare Nostrum and so they are sending more people on less seaworthy vessels, supplying them with less fuel and food. Their operation has become cheaper,” he told the European Parliament’s Civil Liberties Committee.

Mr Arias-Fernandez has been at pains to stress that Triton has nothing to do with Mare Nostrum. However, it is widely seen as a replacement for the Italian mission.

A man inspects the bodies of three African migrants that were recovered by the Libyan coastguard, after their boat sank east of Tripoli, earlier this month. Photo: Ismail Zitouny/Reuters

The cash-strapped Italian government, which has been battling a financial crisis for years, has repeatedly threatened to stop the €10 million-a-month mission, insisting they could not sustain it alone.

Nonetheless, it is still unclear when Triton would start, as it has been held up while Malta, Italy and the European Commission negotiate who would take the migrants rescued. A potential sticking point is a long-standing disagreement between the two countries over the interpretation of maritime law relating to this area. Malta insists that people rescued should be taken to the nearest safe port, while the Italian government argues they should go to the country coordinating the rescue.

Given Malta’s vast search and rescue area  ranging roughly from outside Tunisia to Crete  the Italian interpretation of maritime law would mean that the Maltese islands would take practically all the migrants picked up.

In any case, analysts forecast that even if Malta gets its way, the likelihood is that Malta would receive far more migrants than it has so far this year with the planned Frontex operation

“The reality is Mare Nostrum has been shielding us since it has been operating so close to Libyan waters. Migrants are being picked up before they get anywhere near Maltese waters,” a Maltese military source said.

Neil Falzon, from the human rights NGO Aditus, which last week joined nine organisations to call on European politicians to do more to prevent tragedies at sea, said he shared the concern about the switchover from Mare Nostrum to Triton.

“Yes we are aware of this and are concerned about it. This is why we insist on the need for preventive measures. We need to find ways to stop people getting on those boats,” he said.

The NGOs, among other things, called for the introduction of humanitarian visas, which would grant asylum seekers legal access to Europe.

As things stand, hundreds of people who are granted protection once they reach Europe do not have legal means to enter the continent because they are not granted travel visas.

“We get dozens of queries from Syrian asylum seekers, for instance, who are being denied visas by every single (European) embassy they go to. All we can tell them is that we would be able to provide assistance once they get here,” Dr Falzon said.