After a bitter and protracted campaign on whether Scotland should be independent of the United Kingdom, the Scottish people have decided to stay together with England, Wales and Northern Ireland. The break-up of a successful Union has been averted.

Still, it does not mean things in the United Kingdom, and specifically in Scotland, will stay the same. Deep divisions have been exposed by both the Yes and No campaigns and opened up wounds that will be hard to heal.

Those for Scottish independence exploited hostility to the London political establishment. Even with the No vote, perceived grievances exposed by ugly nationalism will take long to overcome, north and south of the border.

The vote to reject independence has elicited huge worldwide relief that the United Kingdom, a country which has played such a global role and has been a force for good in Europe and the world for so long, will not shrivel to become one third smaller, with less clout internationally and an influence that would be commensurately reduced. A painful national humiliation has been avoided.

Although the United Kingdom’s place in the world has recently been less certain than for several decades, the vote is a crucial result internationally, even for Malta whose ties with the United Kingdom have always been so strong and which would not wish to see it cut a diminished figure on the world stage.

But the real impact of this vote will be domestic – politically and economically. When a previous Westminster government devolved powers over health, education and public services to Scotland 15 years ago, the hope was that Scottish ‘nationalism’ would be satisfied. Instead, a resurgent Scottish National Party has come within a whisker of breaking up the Union. Their grab at independence has given succour to Welsh nationalists and those in Northern Ireland where many (Protestant) unionists have Scottish roots and many (Catholic) republicans would wish to join Eire.

Led by Scotland, the devolved administrations of the United Kingdom (all the countries except England) have become more powerful. Tricky constitutional questions have been awakened by this referendum. The genie is out of the bottle. Scotland has already been promised extra devolutionary powers over finance, welfare and taxation. What happens in England, which has no devolved powers, and Wales and Northern Ireland, which want more power, cannot be ignored. With an election due in May and possibly a referendum on future EU membership, British politics is in for a turbulent few years.

The economic effects of a rejection of Scottish independence are equally important: vital to the United Kingdom’s prosperity and also to world financial markets where fears of a financial meltdown and instability have been prevented. A vote for independence would have derailed the British recovery, driven up the national debt, increased government borrowing costs and resulted in higher interest rates for households. A sterling crash has been averted. More importantly, uncertain and protracted negotiations between Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom to divide the country’s assets have been avoided.

The No vote means, above all, that the great history of the last three centuries – a history of a Union made great by Scotland’s presence – will be preserved. It is a victory for ordinary British citizens across the United Kingdom.

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