It is decision time for Scotland. Is it going to be a ‘Yes’ or a ‘No’ for independence? The latest polls are suggesting that it is too close to call. An unthinkable scenario up until recently, the prevalence of the ‘Yes’ camp all of a sudden became a possible reality, giving shivers to Britain’s main political leaders.
But how did this become possible? Polls have, in the run-up to this referendum, given the ‘No’ camp a comfortable lead, but this has now been (almost entirely) eroded. Has the ‘Yes’ camp been more effective in its campaign? Probably. But this is not all. An important variable played a key role in reversing the tide – the undecided voter.
Usually, undecided voters ultimately tend to settle for the status quo, in this case they should have chosen the ‘No’ camp. It comes as a surprise that the ‘Yes’ camp support surged when undecided voters took a stand. This switch says something about the voter, but says much more about the issue.
A union that has existed for 307 years is now being questioned like never before. Many Scots seem to think the UK is no longer a panacea for Scotland, and it is time for the latter to go it alone.
A ‘Yes’ vote on Thursday would start the process for Scotland to become a sovereign state. This would not happen before March 2016. In the meantime an agreement would have to be reached with the British government about the transition to independence. But what are the economic and political consequences of such a vote?
The Royal Bank of Scotland has already warned that it would move its headquarters to London in the event of a ‘Yes’ vote. Big supermarkets and retail businesses such as Asda and John Lewis have already warned of higher prices for an independent Scotland.
However, the issue of currency is probably the most notable consequence. Unsurprisingly, the matter was central to the campaign. The Scots would want to have a currency union with Britain, something which however has already been ruled out by the British government and the Governor of the Bank of England. Would Scotland have to adopt the euro if a ‘Yes’ vote prevails on Thursday?
Well, there is another complication here. Once Scotland votes for independence it would have to apply to join the EU as every other sovereign state. Alex Salmond, Scotland’s First Minister and leader of the ‘Yes’ camp, would have to work hard to negotiate with the EU before March 2016. Like every other applicant, Scotland would then require the vote of all member states to join the bloc. Here the million dollar question is; why should Scots leave the UK (and the EU) and then vote again to join the EU? Would the Scots be happy to replace the pound with the euro? I do not think so.
By 2018 we may have an independent Scotland joining the EU at the same time as Britain walks out
On the domestic front, an independent Scotland would no longer be represented in the House of Commons. There are currently 59 Scottish MPs, of which 41 are Labour, 11 Liberal Democrats, six from the Scottish National Party and just one Conservative. Ed Miliband and the Labour Party therefore stand to lose heavily in the event of a ‘Yes’ vote.
On the other hand the Tories have never been popular north of the border and the party would benefit in electoral terms from a ‘Yes’ vote. Still, David Cameron, along with his deputy Nick Clegg and the Leader of the Opposition last week all headed to Scotland to rally support for a ‘No’ vote. Whether their presence in Scotland served its purpose remains to be seen.
A ‘Yes’ vote on Thursday may also trigger a movement within Northern Ireland to follow Scotland’s footsteps. Unionists in Northern Ireland have already warned that a ‘Yes’ vote would impact the region. They have warned that such a vote may trigger a resurgence of republican violence.
So who are going to be the winners and losers on Thursday? As the latest polls are suggesting, it is going to be a very close race. It is one of those in which literally every vote counts.
If Scotland decides for independence, Salmond would be the front-runner to become Scotland’s first Prime Minister in 18 months’ time. If the ‘No’ camp scrapes a victory, Scotland would still benefit as the three party leaders in Westminster have already pledged more devolution, power and autonomy for Scotland. So any outcome would translate in a different Scotland come Friday.
A ‘Yes’ vote would be a massive blow for Miliband and the Labour Party. The other day, George Galloway, leader of the Respect Party, warned that an independent Scotland may render Britain to have a Tory government for eternity. He may have exaggerated a little but the truth of the matter is that the Conservatives’ chances of winning elections are much better without Scotland in the mix.
These are indeed interesting times for Britain. This is the first referendum. Another one may follow in 2017 if the Tories win next year’s election. That referendum would decide Britain’s future in the European Union.
Who knows? By 2018 we may have an independent Scotland joining the EU at the same time as Britain walks out.
Lino Spiteri’s column is not appearing this week.