Friday’s signing of a ceasefire agreement between the Ukrainian government and pro-Russian rebels at a meeting in Minsk is certainly welcome and one hopes that it will be the start of a diplomatic solution to this conflict.
The plan includes a stop to “active offensive operations” by the Ukrainian army and pro-Russian rebels, international ceasefire monitoring, prisoner exchanges and humanitarian aid corridors.
Although the deal in Minsk was good news, one has to be sceptical about it being long-lasting, considering Russia’s recent unacceptable behaviour. The EU is in fact working on imposing additional sanctions against Moscow.
The situation in Ukraine was at top of the agenda at Nato’s summit in Wales last Thursday and Friday. The summit made it clear that the type of co-operation between the alliance and Russia over recent years (which indeed was something positive) was no longer possible because of Moscow’s illegal behaviour in Ukraine.
A day before the start of the Nato summit, US President Barack Obama stopped over in Tallinn, Estonia, where he made it clear that Nato guaranteed the independence of all its members.
“You’ve lost your independence once before, with Nato you’ll never lose it again,” Mr Obama said, in a direct warning to Russia.
Obama said that the US and Estonia were stronger because they were democracies, but that their vision was threatened by “Russia’s aggression against Ukraine”.
Nato leaders in Wales said their focus of support for Ukraine will be in four areas: rehabilitation for injured troops, cyber defence, logistics and command and control and communications.
Furthermore, Nato decided to set up a Rapid Reaction Force, based in Poland, consisting of 4,000 troops, and led by a British general, which will be ready to be deployed by the end of 2015. The force is meant to show that Nato is prepared for new threats, such as the conflict in Ukraine and Islamic State jihadists in Iraq and Syria.
There is no doubt at all that Russia over the past few months has invaded eastern Ukraine, not in the conventional sense – it has continuously denied any direct involvement in the conflict – but by arming, directing and financing the rebels, by firing into Ukraine from the Russian side of the border and by sending about 1,000 soldiers over the border with tanks, artillery and armoured vehicles.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s goal in Ukraine is clear: he wants to prevent the country from joining both the EU and Nato, and wants to keep Kiev under Moscow’s sphere of influence. To do this, he has shown that he is prepared to divide the country, change its borders, support (and take part in) military action against it and threaten and bully it.
The threat, made by Putin last week during a telephone conversation with European Commission President José Manuel Barroso, that he could take Kiev in two weeks if he wanted to, is ample proof of Moscow’s bullying tactics.
So are Putin’s comments at a pro-Kremlin youth camp at a lake near Moscow, that: “It’s best not to mess with us,” adding, “I want to remind you that Russia is one of the leading nuclear powers”.
Nato decided to set up a Rapid Reaction Force, based in Poland
Russia’s behaviour and its intervention in Ukraine is unfortunate and rubbishes all the good work done by Putin’s predecessors aimed at improving ties to Europe and the US. Russia is a great country, a great civilisation, with a great history (except during Communist rule) and has so much to offer the world. It has a crucial role to play in promoting global peace and stability and is an important world power.
Unfortunately, as Federica Mogherini, the Italian Foreign Minister who is to become the next EU foreign affairs chief, said at the European Parliament on Tuesday, Russia was no longer the EU’s “strategic partner”.
“I think Russia stays a strategic player in the regional and global challenges but I don’t think it’s a strategic partner anymore,” she said, adding: “I wish it could go back in the future, I wish Russia would choose to go back to be a strategic partner in the future, but I don’t think this is what is happening now”.
I do believe that a diplomatic solution is possible in Ukraine and that this conflict is so unnecessary. Hopefully, this latest ceasefire will work out and Moscow’s ties to the West will start to improve.
The two sides should not be in a conflict over Ukraine, but should be working together on a whole range of issues, such as defeating Islamic State, trying to stop the terrible war in Syria and working towards nuclear disarmament.
While the pressure on Putin must continue – to make it clear that is behaviour is unacceptable – both Moscow and Kiev, however, must be ready to make compromises in the interest of peace and stability.
For a start, Putin must withdraw his ridiculous claim that the Ukrainian government consists of Fascists and Nazis and that the fighting in eastern Ukraine reminds him of the Nazi siege of Leningrad in World War II. This is absolute nonsense, and such propaganda is repeated to Russians every day by the State media.
If Russia is serious about this latest ceasefire it should withdraw its troops from eastern Ukraine and stop supporting the rebels.
In order to encourage Russia to stop its military involvement in Ukraine, the government in Kiev must put on hold its aspirations to join Nato, decentralise power to its regions and pass laws that protect the Russian language.
Ukraine, however, should be free to develop its ties to both the EU and Russia, and to choose EU membership if it so desires after a referendum is held.
Russia needs to get over its siege mentality and come to terms with its past, while Ukraine must listen to Moscow’s security concerns and ensure that Russian speakers are given full rights.
This conflict is pointless and nobody can gain from it. Russia has an important role to play in the world and the sooner this conflict is resolved the better for everyone.