Long shot, this, now leading nowhere. But, why not speculate? If I were a Scot, how would I vote in the forthcoming referendum on whether Scotland should become an independent State or keep the country’s 307-year-old union with England and Wales intact.
Many Scots would have made up their minds but probably a definite majority still has to decide.
As D-day gets nearer, the debate will lighten up. So far, it has been rather phlegmatic. Surprisingly, passion is being shown mostly by the no side, by those who want the union to persevere. That suggests that the union conservationists feel that a disunited kingdom will be severely weakened. And, actually, it will initially be, practically on all fronts.
What remains of the United Kingdom will be significantly weaker than what exists today, despite Scotland’s minority status. Which has its own strong signal. The pro-union conservationists hold out that their position is largely inspired by a desire not to see Scotland try to go it alone and falter.
And, yet, the faltering seems to be in what remains of the United Kingdom. The main argument, it seems to me, is focusing on the warning that an independent Scotland would not be able to keep the pound sterling as its currency.
That is likely to happen. But would it really be the end of the world or Scotland or would it mean that the remaining United Kingdom would lose a substantial part of its clout?
Rather surprisingly, a most obvious reply to this question has not been highlighted. It relates to Ireland. Ireland too is a small country, as an independent Scotland would be. But what is there to say it has no place in the world?
True, it passed through its financial crisis, as did a number of larger EU countries. But it survived and is recovering, among other things due to the solidarity that welled up in the European Union to face the crisis and, in a larger part, due to the willingness of the Irish to put their shoulder to the oar and accept what remedial measures had to be accepted, tough as they were. If push came to shove, why has it to be assumed that an independent Scotland would do any worse?
The Scots’ entrepreneurship and inventiveness would surely be welcome in the EU
An independent Scotland, that would eventually adopt the euro as its currency, would take a long time to adjust, especially with the division of assets and liabilities that would have to take place. But the force of circumstance would give life to the effort, assuming the rest of the EU played ball and accepted an independent Scotland as a member.
The Scots’ entrepreneurship and inventiveness would surely be welcome in an EU which is showing not a little sign of sclerosis.
The solution would take time to put into place. But rushing would benefit no one.
At present, rushing is clearly taking place, the post-status quo lobby is trying to rush the pro-independence movement off its feet with dire warnings.
Watching David Cameron hold forth about the subject, with his angry schoolmasterly demeanour prevailing, one gets the strong impression that this is a very personal affair for him. Probably is. For all the leading participants in the debate, it is a personal affair, which is why, as a surrogate Scot, I would like the issue to reach a debate climax with less heat and more objectiveness.
Without the debate being objective, there can be no sensible conclusion to the arguments put forward. As it is, there has been no third party focus on making the debate more objective.
There is a distinct feeling that, in the rest of the EU, pro-independence Scots are seen as untimely troublemakers. True. Few welcome radical change. An independent Scotland knocking on the EU’s door is radical enough, yet, to give the notion short shrift would not be the right way forward.
To intimate as much would raise doubts among voters and leverage the vote of those who want the union to stay intact. If it does stay intact, as seems likely, that will be the end of the debate on independence, though there would be more devolution to strengthen the Scots’ place within a revamped union.
Yet, here is no foregone conclusion. The outcome could still lead to years of eventual independence. Then, the present decision pressing for a no vote would have to become much more serious and relevant to drastically changed circumstances.