Efforts to reduce aviation carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will be outweighed by the growth in air passengers, according to research.
Plane ticket prices would need to rise by at least 1.4 per cent a year for emission levels to fall, the research by the University of Southampton said. But such a rise would buck the recent trend of lower air fares, said the authors of the research.
They said that even if proposed mitigation measures were agreed upon and put into place, air traffic growth rates were likely to outpace emission reductions, unless demand was somehow substantially reduced.
The research’s co-author John Preston said: “There is little doubt that increasing demand for air travel will continue for the foreseeable future.
“As a result, civil aviation is going to become an increasingly significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.”
The authors of the study, published in the journal Atmospheric Environment, have calculated the ticket price increase necessary to drive down demand would value CO2 emissions at up to 100 times the amount of current valuations.
“This would translate to a yearly 1.4 per cent increase on ticket prices, breaking the trend of increasing lower airfares,” said co-author and researcher Matt Grote.
The industry will continue to seek improvements to fuel efficiency as this will reduce costs
He went on: “The price of domestic tickets has dropped by 1.3 per cent a year between 1979 and 2012, and international fares have fallen by 0.5 per cent a year between 1990 and 2012.”
The research suggested any move to suppress demand would be resisted by the airline industry and national governments.
The researchers say a global regulator “with teeth” is urgently needed to enforce CO2 emission reduction measures.
“Some mitigation measures can be left to the aviation sector to resolve,” said Ian William, head of the Centre for Environmental Science at the University of Southampton. For example, the industry will continue to seek improvements to fuel efficiency as this will reduce costs.
“However, other essential measures, such as securing international agreements, setting action plans, regulations and carbon standards will require political leadership at a global level.”
The research suggested that the UN body the International Civil Aviation Organisation “lacks the legal authority to force compliance and therefore is heavily reliant on voluntary cooperation and piecemeal agreements”.