It will be some weeks before Malta knows whether oil drilling to the south has been successful but geologist Peter Gatt is not holding his breath.

With Genel Energy, the majority partner in the drilling company, reporting a 20 per cent probability of finding oil, Dr Gatt, an expert on the geology of the Maltese continental shelf, is not hopeful.

“This is not a very high probability given that 3D seismic surveys were also used to analyse the rock formations in the area,” he says.

He also notes that Mediterranean Oil and Gas, the minority partner in the venture, reports on its website a 12 per cent probability of success.

But what baffles him more is that MOG agreed to sell its shares to Rockhopper Exploration, a UK-based company, just days before the actual drilling started.

“If they were so confident of the well’s prospects, why would they sell and how does the probability of success drop from 20 per cent to 12 per cent?”

However, Dr Gatt also cites geological reasons to support his sceptical outlook.

The well, christened Ħaġar Qim by the oil company, is being drilled in a graben, a depression on the seabed, which he considers to be a “peculiar” choice.

But a more significant question mark hangs on the scientific model used to analyse the rock formations in the area, which is based on data obtained in nearby Tunisian waters where oil has been found.

“The companies have interpreted stratigraphic data in such a way to assume that the Maltese area contains reservoir rock similar to Tunisia but the evidence to support this from Malta’s continental shelf is poor,” Dr Gatt says.

More on the e-paper on timesofmalta.com Premium http://www.timesofmalta.com/articles/view/20140608/local/The-quest-for-oil-it-is-not-just-all-about-luck.522376

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