It will be some weeks before Malta knows whether oil drilling to the south has been successful but geologist Peter Gatt is not holding his breath.
With Genel Energy, the majority partner in the drilling company, reporting a 20 per cent probability of finding oil, Dr Gatt, an expert on the geology of the Maltese continental shelf, is not hopeful.
“This is not a very high probability given that 3D seismic surveys were also used to analyse the rock formations in the area,” he says.
He also notes that Mediterranean Oil and Gas, the minority partner in the venture, reports on its website a 12 per cent probability of success.
But what baffles him more is that MOG agreed to sell its shares to Rockhopper Exploration, a UK-based company, just days before the actual drilling started.
“If they were so confident of the well’s prospects, why would they sell and how does the probability of success drop from 20 per cent to 12 per cent?”
However, Dr Gatt also cites geological reasons to support his sceptical outlook.
The well, christened Ħaġar Qim by the oil company, is being drilled in a graben, a depression on the seabed, which he considers to be a “peculiar” choice.
But a more significant question mark hangs on the scientific model used to analyse the rock formations in the area, which is based on data obtained in nearby Tunisian waters where oil has been found.
“The companies have interpreted stratigraphic data in such a way to assume that the Maltese area contains reservoir rock similar to Tunisia but the evidence to support this from Malta’s continental shelf is poor,” Dr Gatt says.
His remarks beg the obvious question. With all these doubts hanging over the prospects, why would oil companies still go ahead and drill?
“It is a fact of life that many wells are unsuccessful but oil companies take the risk because if oil is found the returns are very high,” Dr Gatt says.
Ħaġar Qim is the first well since 2002 to be drilled and only Malta’s 13th in 55 years of oil exploration. During roughly the same period Italy drilled more than 6,000 wells.
Dr Gatt estimates that if Malta had to adopt the same intensity as Italy it should have drilled around 200 wells during the period.
The poor drilling record may very well be the reason why Malta has failed to strike oil and gas unlike its neighbours.
“Malta’s oil exploration efforts are almost a total failure and part of the reason may lie in the fact that lack of proper geological data makes the Maltese continental shelf a high risk venture for oil companies,” Dr Gatt says.
During a seminar in September 2012, Dr Gatt had argued that Malta had been drilling for oil in the dark because little was known of the rock composition of Maltese land and sea.
He had lamented the lack of a national institution to survey the country’s geology, which left gaping holes of information that kept oil companies away.
Dr Gatt still stands by those words. “A National Geological Survey will gather data that can be used as a marketing tool to attract oil companies.”
He says other small Mediterranean countries like Cyprus and Israel have done much better because the geological information they possess is an attraction.
But there is also a legal reason why having sound geological knowledge is important, Dr Gatt adds.
With Malta’s continental shelf covering some 70,000 square kilometres, the country has had to face territorial claims from Italy, Tunisia and Libya. In such instances it would help if Malta defends its patch by using geological arguments, Dr Gatt says.
“Unfortunately, I feel Malta has not been vociferous enough over the years to defend its continental shelf, which can be a reflection of the lack of effort to have a proper oil exploration structure,” he says.
But there is also an element of secrecy that has characterised Malta’s oil exploration efforts. When the government issues international calls for exploration in offshore areas, bidders’ names are not published.
“I cannot understand why the lack of transparency. It may be because very few companies actually show interest,” Dr Gatt says, adding Cyprus releases the names of bidders.
Secrecy is also the name of the game when researchers ask to see available geological data. This is incomprehensible, he argues, since other countries willingly make their geological data available to researchers. A case in point is the geological data extracted when the Gozo oil well Madonna taż-Żejt was being drilled in 1998.
“That was a stratigraphic well that went eight kilometres deep – way beyond the adequate depth to find oil – and despite being paid for by our taxes, the government has over the years refused to release the geological data,” Dr Gatt says.
His represents a researcher’s frustration but the million dollar question lingers: will Malta ever strike oil? He is not disheartened but the key to success is adequate geological data. “Until now oil exploration has largely projected data from neighbouring countries onto Malta’s continental shelf and this may have resulted in failure or even misled us.”
The Maltese continental shelf exhibits particular characteristics that have to be analysed separately from surrounding known petroleum systems, he adds.
Until that happens Malta will continue hoping that Ħaġar Qim and the number 13 will represent good luck.
ksansone@timesofmalta.com