Will Simon Busuttil tap into Malta’s ‘Spring of discontent’? This is arguably the one fundamental issue before us at this week’s European Parliament election, in an electoral campaign entirely based on media coverage monopolised by Joseph Muscat and Busuttil in stage-set party discussions – perhaps one should say monologues.

This is not, of course, the first direct clash between the leaders since they had both contested the first EP election in 2004 and both easily topped their respective lists.

In fact, Busuttil obtained the most votes nationally with 58,899 first-preference votes, outstripping his nearest Nationalist Party candidate, David Casa, by 50,000, as well as Labour’s frontrunner Muscat, who won 36,958 votes.

Muscat in turn distanced Labour’s second-placed John Attard Montalto by 11,000 votes.

Yet in both of the two previous EP elections, Busuttil’s personal triumph did not correspond to the PN winning either of them.

In fact, Busuttil increased his tally to 68,782 votes, easily beating Labour’s Louis Grech’s 27,753 votes. He holds the prestigious record of the only candidate to get elected with the quota at the first count at any EP election in Malta.

There is therefore a unique European appeal about Busuttil.

This EU popularity, however, risks becoming a political curse for him at the coming EP elections.

Apart from the PN playing second fiddle to Labour in both EP elections, Busuttil was summoned at the last minute to contest the last general election with the manifest expectation of giving the kiss of life to Lawrence Gonzi’s ailing government.

It was clearly proven to be wishful thinking of the first water.

Busuttil logically claimed that he contested the 2013 general election out of a sense of duty to prevent a bigger loss to his former leader.

No such claim may be made at the coming EP vote since he is the party’s new leader and therefore represents the drive to give the Nationalist Party a new image and a new electoral strength.

Labour accused Busuttil of hedging his bets when he set the third seat as PN’s benchmark, since now there is an extra seat for the taking.

I think this benchmark begs these questions: Why did the PN win the 2003 ‘EU’ general election with 53.84 per cent of the national vote against the 46.15 per cent of Labour and just one year later ended losing the EU elections?

Equally, why did the PN win the 2008 election marginally but once more lost the 2009 EP election?

This indicates that the voters have traditionally reserved the EP election to give the incumbent a severe warning not to be taken for granted by the very government they voted in just a year before.

The first preference vote no longer determines if parties win extra seats at the end of the counting

This is the true yardstick to measure the upcoming election. It is, therefore, far too premature to establish one electoral yardstick.

The relevant one could be of seats or the level of abstentionism or that of first-preference votes or indeed, as should be the case, of the last-preference votes.

To my mind, of critical importance is the level of 138,471 last-preference votes obtained by the PN at the 2009 EP elections.

It is very important to keep in mind that, with Malta and Gozo being one district, it is only the last count that matters.

The first-preference vote loses the fundamental importance it has at national general elections for the purposes of party voting and reacquires its importance solely for candidate selection.

If voters want to give a ‘party vote’ they must indicate a preference against each name in the list of candidates of a particular party and none to any other candidate.

The first-preference vote no longer determines if parties win extra seats at the end of counting. The 2004 EP election proves the point, when the pro-EU alliance used the single transferable vote to show its appreciation of Alternattiva’s role at the EU referendum by giving it 22,938 first-preference votes, which increased to 29,013 at last preference, enabling its candidate to end in sixth place, just one place short of election.

This was by far the best performance by a third party in any post-independence national elections.

One, therefore, even has to evaluate Alternattiva’s result at this year’s election since Labour’s 2004 EP victory was directly attributable to the cross voting between the two pro-EU parties, which ended favouring the then still eurosceptic Labour Party.

The addition of the PN and AD votes would have beaten Labour.

Labour’s electoral machine has lost its 2013 tarnish and often seems in distress, as was flagged by a number of independent commentators and even by the former Labour minister Lino Spiteri.

Yet, paradoxically, this only serves to raise the ante in Busuttil’s regard since there is notably an undercurrent of discontent by the ‘silent majority’ ­– which is there for the taking by the Opposition.