Shortly, we will be electing our MEPs as will do the rest of EU member states. All countries are required to use the proportional representation (PR) system to elect their European Parliament representatives. PR systems make it easier for minority groups to win seats. That is why far-right parties like the British National Party fail to win seats in the House of Commons but win seats in Brussels. (The first-past-the-post system is used for general elections in the UK.)
Voting turnout in MEPs elections across Europe is generally very low. Only a few countries surpass the 50 per cent mark. This is worrying as is the rise of far-right movements and Euroscepticism.
The financial crisis that hit Europe in the last few years may have dented support for the EU, guilty in the eyes of many, of engineering austerity but no growth. The UK’s YouGov poll demonstrated that disenchantment with mainstream politics is a phenomenon that is sweeping the continent. This is leading to record levels of support for far-right candidates. According to the same poll, the European elections are likely to result in a wave of success for minority and protest parties and a massive slap in the face for Europe’s political leaders.
On the local scene, the situation is quite different. We do not seem to be suffering from apathy towards the EU. Support for far-right candidates is almost non-existent. The turnout will again be strong compared to other European states but it may still decline when compared to other elections.
This probability seems to be worrying the leaders of the two major parties who have been pushing hard to bring out their respective supporters to vote. The Prime Minister has appealed for soldiers of steel while the leader of the Opposition called for the disgruntled PN voter.
The media has been attempting to make predictions about the outcome of the May 24 election. This is, after all, a very important occasion for the electorate to judge the government’s performance a year into the five-year legislature. The two parties have also set their targets, which seem to be foregone conclusions. The PL has set its target to win the majority of votes while the PN aims for the third seat.
All things being equal, both parties will be claiming victory. I cannot see a majority of 36,000 votes being lost in a year. On the other hand, the PN would still win a third seat even if it gets 30,000 fewer votes than the PL.
All predictions will however be thrown out of the window if turnout is below 70 per cent. If a third of the country chooses to abstain, anything can happen. If those abstaining are predominantly PL voters, then Labour’s majority could be trimmed considerably. On the other hand, if PN voters choose to stay at home, the third seat may become vulnerable.
The parties’ administrations must have set different targets for the elections.
What would be realistically a good result for both parties?
In the last general election, the PL won a majority of 36,000 votes, or almost a 12 per cent margin. So, a year later, the PL should not be happy unless it wins a comfortable majority of 8-9 per cent.
If turnout is about 80 per cent, the majority would translate to about 25,000 votes. A year after a landslide victory and after practically 25 years in Opposition, I would be surprised if the party in government loses more than that, even if these are second-tier elections. The situation for the PN is somewhat different, but there is also a yardstick to measure its performance a year after losing heavily to Labour.
The result of this election will definitely have a bearing on the remainder of the legislature
Apart from winning the third seat, the PN must have in mind the other numbers that are very relevant.
Its leader knows very well that overturning last year’s deficit is next to impossible. Trimming four percentage points off Labour’s majority, which, in turn, reflects a drop of about 11,000 votes (with a turnout of 80 per cent) is a more realistic target.
If Labour’s majority does not exceed 20,000 votes, then the PN would be right to express satisfaction.
The result of this MEP election will definitely have a bearing on the remainder of the legislature.
A majority for the PL within the same margins of last year’s election would be a big boost for the Prime Minister. It would definitely be a vote of confidence in his way of leading the country.
On the other hand, with such a result, the PN would have to go back to the drawing board and analyze its performance over the past 15 months.
A quarter of this legislature has already gone by and reducing Labour’s majority is of paramount importance for the party in Opposition if it is to stand a chance of winning the next general election.
Simon Busuttil and the PN have a mammoth task to turn around last year’s result in four years’ time. This election is their first opportunity to start doing that.
There is another scenario.
If a third or more of the electorate chooses not to take the trip to the polling station on May 24, then any predictions and interpretations of the result would become irrelevant. The only number that would matter for the parties would be the abstentions. Of more importance would be the faces behind such abstentions.
Hermann Schiavone is an elections analyst.