The results of the municipal elections in France, which went badly for the Socialists, have received a lot of attention. Some attention was also given to the local elections held in Turkey, which were supposed to bruise the prime minister, Tayyip Erdogan, but instead went unexpectedly well. Little attention has been given, however, to how the results in Turkey may affect those in France.
The respective situations in France and Turkey, at first glance, could not be more different.
In Turkey, a powerful prime minister who has been in power for 12 years, and who has been getting erratic and angrier at any opposition, somehow receives a boost in the local elections. He was expected to come close to losing control of Istanbul’s municipality and to lose outright in Ankara to the main opposition party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP).
Instead, Erdogan’s Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) won Istanbul comfortably and even squeezed past the opposition in Ankara. After a year of protests, and a few months of serious corruption scandals, some of which involved Erdogan’s family members, the municipal elections were expected to punish Erdogan.
If it were a test, he passed it with flying colours. He obtained 46 per cent of the vote, against less than 30 per cent for the CHP. Instead of being bruised, Erdogan seems set to win the first direct election of Turkey’s president, which is due this summer.
In his victory speech, he hinted broadly that he would run. He used the formula, beloved of politicians, that he was ready to serve where necessary. He immediately went on to vent his anger against people and unnamed groups who he feels have conspired against him.
In other words, he showed no sign that he was going to trim back on the threatening rhetoric that had people thinking of a possible heavy cost in votes.
A stalling of Turkey’s negotiations with the EU will take some wind out of the FN’s sails
Meanwhile, in France, things went as predicted for President François Hollande. That is, badly. The only bright spot was the Socialist gain of the mayor’s office in Paris. Otherwise, the Socialists came a poor second to the centre-right opposition, the UMP, while the real winner was the far-right party, Front National, which became the third national party.
One would think that one explanation for the different results is the state of the economy. France is doing badly. Up to recently, Turkey was considered one of the powerful emerging economies.
Erdogan’s period in office had a lot to do with the success. In 2002, he inherited an economy that had shrunk by 10 per cent. By 2003, salaries had trebled and growth had returned. By 2008, when economic disaster struck Europe and the US, he had positioned Turkey as one of the best places for foreign investment for money that previously had been invested in the other countries.
That remarkable period of Turkish growth, however, is now over. The growth rate has contracted to two per cent. Inflation is up to 7.4 per cent, well over targets. The reason is that foreign capital is leaving the country and returning to the recovering economies, especially the US. The cost of borrowing money has gone up for firms and they are passing the cost on to consumers. The Turkish stock market has lost a third of its value.
In other words, Erdogan won despite facing economic problems. Those problems may continue.
If the election result boosts his tendency to hector any opposition, not to say to resort to intimidating tactics, we can expect the talks on Turkey’s application to join the European Union to freeze over this year.
Many observers of Turkey’s candidacy of EU membership do not expect much progress, if any, to be made this year. Some are even saying that the talks may stall until Erdogan’s career comes to an end.
What does this have to do with France? Hollande’s defeat came despite the fact that the main opposition party, the UMP, has not impressed too many voters. The real problem has been the growth of the National Front that has taken votes directly from the Socialists. The NF did best in areas with high-unemployment and working class districts.
Anti-EU sentiment and anti-globalisation were two elements in the mix. However, anti-immigration and anti-Muslim sentiment were others.
The fact that Turkey, in previous years, was making evident progress in its EU talks was one element that gave fuel to the FN’s rhetoric. Therefore, a stalling of Turkey’s negotiations with the EU will take some wind out of the FN’s sails. A dip in Erdogan’s fortunes may boost some of Hollande’s, even though the latter needs the economy to recover for him to have any hope of re-election.
In previous years, it was the economic crisis in the US and Europe that boosted the economic fortunes of Turkey and, therefore, the political career of Erdogan.
Who dares to say that the world is not interconnected?