Russia’s recent behaviour in Crimea will no doubt bring about some changes in international diplomacy as well as in regional alliances.

We are definitely in for a cooling of both EU-Russia ties and US-Russia ties, undermining the progress that has been made on this front over the last 20 years. This is unfortunate but inevitable.

First of all, it is clear that as German Chancellor Angela Merkel remarked, “the G8 doesn’t exist anymore, neither does the summit or the format as such”. The G8 is now back to the original G7, a grouping of like-minded liberal, democratic, advanced capitalist countries.

However, Russia is an important player on the world stage, not as important as the US or Europe – US President Barack Obama called it a “regional power” during his trip to Europe last week – but important nonetheless. It cannot be ignored, nor should it be, and it remains a member of the G20 – where many global issues are discussed – and its participation there is not in doubt.

Nevertheless, Russia’s removal from the G8 and the consequent reversal to the G7 is a blow to Moscow’s pride, even if it plays this down, and it is likely to be less co-operative with the G7 countries on a wide range of global issues as a result.

If there is one thing the annexation of Crimea has ensured it is that Nato still has a very important role to play in Europe. Vladimir Putin has guaranteed that Nato will not only survive but will be strengthened. As a result, US-European ties will get stronger.

Since the collapse of the Berlin Wall, Nato has operated in a number of missions outside its collective defence role. However, Nato’s original role – that of collective defence in the face of aggression by the then Soviet Union – has now once again become a top priority.

Four Nato countries, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, share a border with Russia, and have expressed their grave concern over the situation in Ukraine. Two of these countries, Latvia and Estonia, have significant Russian-speaking populations and feel vulnerable.

In a sign of support, Nato has already sent additional jet fighters to the Baltic states, air defence units to Poland and early warning aircraft to patrol the Ukrainian border. We can expect Nato to further increase its presence on the border areas in these countries, especially if Russia invades eastern Ukraine.

Should Russia attempt to annex eastern Ukraine, then of course Europe and the US would enter a new phase of very frosty relations with Moscow, which will be made to pay a heavy price.

I very much hope that Russia sees some common sense and will not go into eastern Ukraine, but whatever the case Nato is bound to increase its ties with Kiev. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Nato’s secretary general, said after a meeting with President Obama in Brussels last week that “the alliance will intensify its military cooperation with Ukraine” and “review the viability of our relationship with Russia. We will not seek confrontation, but we will not waver if challenged.”

Nato is now also likely to increase its co-operation with countries like Georgia and Moldova although membership of the alliance should not be on the cards, at least not for a while, and the same applies to Ukraine. The EU too, will find ways of strengthening its relations with these countries.

Moscow could well annex its two Russian-speaking protectorates in Georgia, where it has had troops since 2008, as well as the separatist region of Russian-speaking Trans-Dniester, a narrow strip of land which proclaimed independence from Moldova in 1990 and borders Ukraine, and where Russia has about 1,000 troops. Such a development would no doubt lead to frostier relations with Russia and cause some further worries at Nato.

We can expect Russia’s latest behaviour in Ukraine to encourage Europe to be less dependent on Russian gas and this was discussed during last week’s EU-US summit. Russia provides around one third of the EU’s oil and gas and some 40 per cent of the gas is exported through Ukraine; this will need to change.

We can also expect Russia to look towards other countries to streng-then its economic and political ties, such as China, India, Brazil, Iran and Egypt, and less towards Europe and the US. However, although China is a huge market and Moscow and Bejing are traditional allies, the Chinese were not at all happy with Russia’s intervention in Ukraine and its annexation of Crimea.

Putin has guaranteed that Nato will not only survive but will be strengthened

In a rare move, China abstained during the Security Council vote on Russia’s behaviour in Ukraine and the referendum in Crimea. This left Moscow isolated in a 13-1 vote (the one being Russia which vetoed the resolution), which has implications for future Sino-Russian relations.

Russia can also prove to be difficult in co-operating in conflicts such as Syria as well when negotiating Iran’s nuclear programme. Moscow is bound to intensify its support for the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, which would probably lead to a prolonged stalemate in the conflict. Russia could also adopt a more sympathetic stand towards Iran when dealing with Teheran’s nuclear programme, and this could lead to disunity with the 5+1.

Although the US and Russia did agree to endorse last week’s final statement at the nuclear security summit at The Hague, pledges to tighten nuclear security against terrorist threats were diluted after differences emerged over what kind of information should be shared between countries.

Russia, China, India and Pakistan were among the countries that abstained from subscribing to new information-sharing projects backed by the US and its allies.

Could this be the first example of Moscow’s less co-operative stand in international forums?

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