Most eyes are at the moment understandably on Ukraine and the crisis there. Another crisis is developing on the other side of the world, however, in Venezuela. It is not so remote as to be completely without implications for our side of the world.

The crisis in Venezuela is the most serious that the ruling Socialist Party has faced in a decade. Large crowds are out in the streets, both in protest and in support of the government.

A thousand people have been arrested. Although many have been released, others remain detained, including one Opposition leader. Claims of torture have been made, with the government first denying them and then the Prosecutor General saying that the claims will be investigated. Dozens have been killed in the streets.

The political temperature continues to rise. Air Canada has suspended flights to the country, citing security concerns. Venezuela has suspended diplomatic relations with Panama for daring to raise concern about developments in a regional forum.

How the situation is resolved has implications for Russia. In the post-Cold War era, the two countries formed an alliance that dates from the heyday of the late President Hugo Chavez, who died last year. Chavez explicitly spoke of the alliance as a counterweight to US international dominance.

We have to watch and see what happens when a self-styled eagle flaps its wings to hunt a fly

In practice, this meant that Venezuela could be relied on to support several Russian initiatives as well as to use its influence in Latin America to try to attract further support. For example, when Russia encouraged breakaway separatisms in its immediate neighbourhood, as it has done with Crimea, Venezuela could be counted on to give international diplomatic recognition to the process.

Venezuela continues to be one of Russia’s important trading partners, especially in importing military arms. As recently as last month, it was announced that Russia was expanding its military presence in the Latin American hemisphere. Venezuela was one of three countries mentioned that would be hosting a larger Russian presence.

This solid relationship may melt into air if there is a change of government and the ruling Socialist Party is replaced by a political party more sympathetic to the US. Therefore, we should watch carefully to see the chance of this happening because of the current protests.

The government is taking them seriously. We can gauge how much by looking at how President Nicolas Maduro, Chavez’s successor, is treating one of the protests’ prominent leaders, Maria Corina Machado.

Ten years ago, Machado had challenged Chavez in Congress. She described the State’s expropriation of private businesses as theft. Chavez did not deign to reply. He grandly announced: “An eagle does not hunt a fly”.

This week, however, the Socialist-dominated Congress demanded that Machado be subject to a criminal investigation. The charges include treason and damage to buildings, given her responsibility in encouraging the protesters.

One may conclude that Machado is no longer a fly. Or perhaps the President is no longer an eagle. Either way, a significant change has taken place.

While Machado is leading the protests, one should not exaggerate her role. She is from a wealthy background, often derided for being cut off from the poor, while the protests are dominated by middle-class concerns. Last year, when Machado ran for the Opposition’s nomination for candidate for the presidency, she fared poorly.

The protests began in December, fuelled by concerns over record inflation, running at 56 per cent and food shortages. The high rate of violent crime, one of the highest in the world, is also a concern.

Maduro has not helped his cause by some of his pronouncements. Responding to the food shortages, he urged the country to cut back on excessive consumption. That was probably a dig at the rich but it was portrayed as urging people to eat less.

He blamed inflation on “nymphomaniac” demand for US dollars and crime on violence in film, citing Spiderman 3.

Such statements make it seem as though the government is absolving itself of any responsibility to do more to address these issues. Obviously, that has riled the protesters even more.

Whether their ire will be enough to displace him, however, depends on whether the protests spread to other social classes. For the moment, it seems that the poor are still part of the core support of his government.

The protests might still have important effects, though. Should Maduro decide to invest more money into the imploding economy, he could cut back drastically on the aid he gives Cuba and, to a lesser extent, Brazil. The economic shock to Cuba would be as violent as that caused by the collapse of the Soviet Union a quarter of a century ago. However, Venezuela’s influence would also be reduced.

It is said that when a butterfly flaps its wings on the other side of the world it can create a storm on our side. We have to watch and see what happens when a self-styled eagle flaps its wings to hunt a fly.

John Attard Montalto is a Labour member of the European Parliament.

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