The situation in Crimea should be of extreme concern to anyone who believes in democracy and the rule of law. Crimea is an integral part of Ukraine.
The territorial integrity of an independent nation has been violated. A choice isn’t a choice when it is made with a gun to your head.
Yet tomorrow, the people of Crimea will be asked to make an impossible choice: to vote to become subjugated by Russia or to vote for independence – with no guarantee that Russia will show any more respect for the sovereignty of an independent Crimea than it did for the territorial integrity of an independent Ukraine.
The odds are clearly stacked in Russia’s favour, like the toss of a coin. Heads Russia wins. Tails Crimea loses.
The vote – no matter what its outcome – is both illegal and unconstitutional: there can be absolutely no doubt about that.
The terms of the Ukrainian Constitution are unequivocal: the vote can only be convened at the request of three million citizens; it must be an all-Ukraine referendum; and it can only be called by the Ukrainian Parliament.
None of these conditions have been met.
A choice isn’t a choice when it is made with a gun to your head
The vote will be illegitimate. How can a ballot held in the shadow cast by the presence of armed Russian troops, in a region under military occupation, be anything else?
These questions should be settled in free and fair referenda, as we will see in Scotland later this year. But tomorrow’s referendum in Crimea will be neither free nor fair.
For the past two decades, we have sought to put the tension and mistrust of the Cold War behind us: to recognise the powerful and positive contribution Russia brings to the international community and to the prosperity of all our people.
A web of international agreements and institutions has been put in place both to help avoid repeating the bitter confrontations of the past and to settle disputes peacefully.
Bodies like the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the Council of Europe, of which Russia is an integral member, exist to help states address questions of self-determination and defend the rights of minorities.
But the OSCE – the standard bearer of electoral integrity – has declared that the referendum will be illegal and will not send observers to the poll.
It is still not too late for Russia to use these institutions, to engage seriously in diplomacy and to find a peaceful resolution.
In the meantime, EU leaders have been clear that it cannot be business as usual with Russia.
We have suspended negotiations on a more liberal visa regime for Russians, stopped work on a comprehensive new agreement on relations between Russia and the EU and pulled out of all preparations for the G8 summit in Sochi in June.
We have also been clear that if Russia does not de-escalate and engage rapidly in direct talks with the Ukrainian government, we will go further.
We are looking at travel bans and asset freezes. Other economic sanctions are under consideration.
Let us be honest, Europe’s and Russia’s economies are deeply interconnected.
We must acknowledge that there would be short-term costs for all of us. But the costs of not responding are far greater.
This is a moment when we must look beyond our short-term economic interests and recognise the overriding need to act strategically in defence of our principles and values, including the rule of law.
We must support the Ukrainian people. We continue to urge President Vladimir Putin to use his authority for the good of Crimea, Ukraine, Europe and Russia and end this crisis.
A vital first step will be for Moscow to refrain from recognising the outcome of tomorrow’s farcical referendum.
After all, it will have no legal effect. It will have no moral force. And the result will not be recognised by the international community. It should not go ahead.
Rob Luke is British High Commissioner in Malta