If, as seems likely, Marie-Louise Coleiro Preca does become the next President of the Republic, her appointment will be very popular. It will start off in controversy. The Nationalist Party will not agree with the move. That is clearly predictable. The PN insists that someone of Nationalist leanings should become Head of State.

Simon Busuttil said that long ago. He premises his position on the fact that Lawrence Gonzi had appointed George Abela, a Labourite, to the position. The Prime Minister, Busuttil holds, should return the favour and nominate someone from within the Nationalist ranks.

The argument is fallacious. Gonzi had won the 2008 election by a whisker, barely the equivalent of a third of a seat’s quota. He was morally obliged to make a move to recognise that damning factor. Coming up with Abela, aside from the man’s indisputable qualities, was that move.

It was not a gesture towards the Labour Party, which was deprived of a leading member. It was a sop to Gonzi’s conscience. He did not approach the Leader of the Opposition with an open question to discuss. He told him it’s either Abela or I shall nominate someone from my own side.

Gonzi had to face some flak from within his party by those who insisted that, as they had done before whenever the occasion arose, the President should be a Nationalist. Yet, the historical background should not be distorted. That Abela turned out to be a widely popular President is not the point. The point is Gonzi’s weak electoral victory and his imposition.

Joseph Muscat can point to a wildly different situation. He boasts a massive electoral victory that still resonates in its uniqueness. He did not simply beat Gonzi. He destroyed him. All his yesterdays were thrown overboard. The electorate was persuaded to be brutal.

Clearly, Muscat feels he has a right, even if he ignored Nationalist precedent (at least Labour had nominated one neutral President in the exalted figure of Sir Anthony Mamo), to come up with someone from the Labour side. He is about to do just that. Going against popular belief, he will not nominate George Vella – who will remain a successful and respected foreign minister – but a female candidate. That has been his preference all along.

The lady will be a very hard act to follow

The Nationalist opposition will be total but it will be restrained. They will disagree with the nomination but show respect for the nominee. They may be inclined to vote against Coleiro Preca when a formal decision is taken in the House of Representatives, but they might temper their position by abstaining. However, it comes about, Coleiro Preca will be it.

In my view, it will be a mistake, both from her and the government’s standpoint, and I’d say the nation’s too.

Coleiro Preca is a consummate people’s representative. She nurtures her constituents and, as minister, others from afar like few manage to do. She holds huge sway in her constiuency and is the Cabinet’s most respected member. She is a champion of the underpriveleged, a warrior against poverty.

As President, she will have to give up most of that. She will raise a voice for social justice, now and then. But she will not be able to take effective action. That of President is a ceremonial position. Each holder gives it a personal touch, as Abela has so significantly done. But the job remains what it is.

Instead of looking forward to more exciting years as a minister, aged 60, Coleiro Preca will retire, most probably on a very successful note but riding into a weak sunset.

She will have so much to look back upon but so little to look forward to except the love of her family and those who will continue to admire her.

On its part, what will the government have gained? There are other possible female candidates who would make a good job of the task. Instead, the Cabinet will have lost its leading performer whose charisma rubs off upon the rest. In terms of performance too, the country will not necessarily be better off. The lady will be a very hard act to follow.

As a very old friend and as a detached observer too, I wish Coleiro Preca serenity and satisfaction as Head of State. I only do so reluctantly.