Tropical cyclones hitting east Asia have grown increasingly fierce in the past 30 years and are likely to intensify further with global warming, say scientists.

The coastlines of China, Korea and Japan have felt the force of stronger storms particularly, a study has shown. Experts attribute the trend to rising sea surface temperatures and the strengthening of a local atmospheric circulation system.

Because of the changes, cyclones are more likely to track upwards from the South China Sea, gaining energy until they are at maximum intensity by the time they reach the northeast.

The destruction wrought by Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines in November is not likely to have been part of the same pattern, since it occurred much further south.

The next stage of our research is to use climate models to predict future tropical cyclone landfall intensity in east Asia

The study found no evidence of continual strengthening of cyclones in countries such as Taiwan and Vietnam in southern Asia.

Lead researcher Chang-Hoi Ho, from Seoul National University in South Korea, said: “Noticeable increases of greenhouse gases over the globe could influence rising sea surface temperature and change large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Western North Pacific, which could enhance the intensity of tropical cyclones hitting land over East Asia.

“If the past changes of large-scale environments are evidence or a result of global warming, it can be assumed that, in the future, more catastrophic tropical cyclones will strike east Asia than ever before.

“The next stage of our research is to use climate models to predict future tropical cyclone landfall intensity in these regions.”

The scientists, whose findings appear in the journal Environmental Research Letters, analysed five separate data sets documenting the evolution of Pacific tropical cyclones between 1977 and 2010.

Rising sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific and changes to the Walker circulation were two key influences thought to have led to stronger cyclones.

The Walker circulation is an ocean-based atmospheric system that exists over the Pacific. It is said to have strengthened with increased differences in sea surface temperature between the warmer western Pacific and colder central-eastern Pacific.

This in turn had conjured up wind flows forcing tropical cyclones towards the northeast coasts of Asia.