European shares rose yesterday to mark a positive end to 2013, with pan-European indexes posting their best annual gains since 2009 and many investors forecasting more progress next year.
Although the stock market rally still faces risks from factors such as a possible spike in bond yields or a rise in the oil price from civil unrest in the Middle East and Africa, traders expect the gradual recovery in the world economy to continue to support equities in 2014.
Trading volumes were low yesterday as many European markets including Germany, Italy and Switzerland had already closed.
France’s CAC-40 equity index closed up 0.5 per cent at 4,295.95 points, bringing its gains for 2013 to 18 per cent while Spain’s IBEX rose 0.2 per cent to 9,916.70 points, with the IBEX up around 21 per cent since the start of 2013.
The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index was up 0.3 per cent at 1,315.22 points, while the eurozone’s blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 index rose 0.3 per cent to 3,109.02 points.
Both those indexes reaped gains of 16 per cent and 18 per cent respectively for 2013, their best year since 2009, after signs of economic recovery coupled with a long run of cheap central bank money fuelled a stock market revival.
The rally in Europe has lagged bigger gains in US and Japanese stock markets in 2013, and some traders and investors felt ongoing divergences between European economies could lead to more relative underperformance this year.
“While we remain bullish on equities overall, regional and sector performance will vary significantly,” said Threadneedle Investments chief investment officer Mark Burgess.
Burgess favoured Japanese equities over European ones, as did HED Capital head Richard Edwards, whose preferred European equity region was Germany’s DAX, which rose 26 per cent in 2013 to reach record highs.
“The prospects remain better for Germany than the rest,” said Edwards.
Overall, European shares have rallied as investor worries over the eurozone’s debt crisis abated, and the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve injected liquidity into finan-cial markets.
Earlier last month, the Fed announced it would slightly trim its huge monetary stimulus programme, but investors have taken heart from stronger US economic data and a commitment from the Fed to keep interest rates low for longer.
Yet while the DAX has hit record highs, other European equity indexes remain a long way from peaks hit in 2007, reflecting how Germany’s economic recovery has been stronger than that of its European neighbours.
France’s CAC equity index still needs to rally more than 40 per cent to reach highs hit in 2007, before the start of the global financial crisis, while Spain’s IBEX must gain over 60 per cent and Italy’s FTSE MIB 134 per cent.
“Gains have been pretty solid in 2013, but compared with Wall Street which is trading at record highs, Europe still has a nice catch-up rally just to go back to 2007 levels,” said a Paris-based equity and exchange-traded fund (ETF) trader.