US Secretary of State John Kerry shakes hands with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif after a ceremony at the United Nations in Geneva on November 24. Iran and six world powers reached a breakthrough agreement to curb Teheran’s nuclear programme in exchange for limited sanctions relief, in a first step towards resolving a dangerous decade-old stand-off. Photo: Reuters/Denis Balibouse

The pact agreed by Iran and world powers (US, EU, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China) in Geneva in the early hours of last Sunday morning is historic and has the potential to change the face of the Middle East, to open up a new chapter of engagement with Teheran and to give a massive boost to diplomacy and multilateralism over confrontation.

In a nutshell, Iran agreed to cap its uranium enrichment level to a maximum of five per cent – which is well below the 90 per cent threshold needed for a nuclear warhead, to “neutralise” its stockpile of 20 per cent enriched uranium, to accept increased visits to its nuclear plants by UN inspectors and to cease any further development of its Arak plant which it is believed could produce plutonium.

In return, there will be no new nuclear-related sanctions for six months if Iran sticks to the accord and Teheran will see some sanctions relief – which could mean about $7 billion pumped back into the Iranian economy. However, the sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and its blacklist from international banking networks over the next six months will remain in place. The deal, although of great significance, is an interim accord and intense negotiations will now take place over the next six months with the aim of reaching a formal agreement.

“For the first time in nearly a decade, we have halted the progress of the Iranian nuclear programme, and key parts of the programme will be rolled back,” US President Obama said, adding that any sanctions relief is reversible should Iran fail to comply with the terms of the accord. Indeed, Obama deserves credit for giving diplomacy a chance to work and for showing global leadership in dealing with Iran. The US President managed to convince the international community to isolate Iran and to impose sanctions on it, and this has paid off.

The Geneva accord also shows that in some cases economic sanctions do have the desired effect, in this case to bring Iran to the negotiating table. The sanctions on the oil and banking sectors certainly hurt the Iranian economy, which was further damaged by the reckless economic policies of former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

On top of this was the constant fear of an American or Israeli attack, which must have also encouraged the Iranians to go for a deal. However, one cannot overlook the fact that President Hassan Rouhani was elected in June on a platform of moderation and engagement.

Rouhani, furthermore, is certainly different to his predecessor, and so far has shown goodwill in reaching an agreement to curb his country’s nuclear programme.

Obama deserves credit for giving diplomacy a chance and for showing global leadership in dealing with Iran

One interesting aspect of this latest accord is the fact that US diplomats have been secretly engaged in direct negotiations with a team of Iranian diplomats in Oman since 2011 in an attempt to come to a nuclear agreement. Although the negotiations in Geneva sealed the deal, much of the groundwork for the agreement to be reached took place in Muscat, the Omani capital. Oman’s ruler, Sultan Qaboos-bin-Said, has been described in Foreign Policy by Robert Kaplan, the chief geopolitical analyst for Stratfor, a private global intelligence firm, as “the most worldly and best-informed leader of the Arab world”.

The agreement in the Geneva deal does not fully resolve the dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme, but it is an excellent first step in the right direction. Crucially it puts on hold Iran’s nuclear programme and gives the two sides six months to reach a final accord which will then lead to the lifting of all sanctions on Teheran.

Not surprisingly, Israel called the Geneva agreement a “historic mistake”, while some members of the US Senate, including members of Obama’s own Democratic Party, expressed scepticism at the deal and even threatened to impose fresh sanctions on Iran, which would be a monumental mistake. Saudi Arabia, which in the past urged the US to attack Iran to put an end to its nuclear weapons programme, cautiously welcomed the deal.

In an encouraging move, a statement by the Saudi government said: “This agreement could be a first step towards a comprehensive solution for Iran’s nuclear programme, if there are good intentions.”

This accord, in my opinion, is really one of the biggest diplomatic developments in recent memory. If a formal treaty is signed in six months the Middle East should become a safer place. Considering the fiasco in the aftermath of the Iraq war, the difficult situation in Afghanistan and the stalled Middle East peace process, this pact is good news indeed and should be given a chance to succeed.

The possibility of a rapprochement between the US and Iran, although difficult, is also encouraging.

“This is the first time in 33 years that Washington and Tehran have concluded a formal agreement. Even six months ago, few would have imagined this outcome,” said Suzanne Maloney, a senior fellow of the Saban Centre for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institute in Washington DC.

An Iran engaged with the world and the signing of a formal nuclear treaty has the potential to reduce a source of tension in the Middle East, diminish a direct threat to Israel, prevent nuclear proliferation in the region and could lead to Teheran playing a constructive role in places like Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan.

The Geneva accord will hopefully lead to this and deserves the full support of the international community.