Leading climate scientists said yesterday they were more certain than ever before that mankind was the main culprit for global warming and warned the impact of greenhouse gas emissions would linger for centuries.

A report, by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), played down the fact temperatures have risen more slowly in the past 15 years, saying there were substantial natural variations that masked a long-term warming trend.

It said the earth was set for further warming and more heatwaves, floods, droughts and rising sea levels as greenhouse gases built up in the atmosphere. The oceans would become more acidic in a threat to some marine life.

“It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of observed warming since the mid-20th century,” according to the summary issued after a week-long meeting in Stockholm and meant to guide policymakers in shifting towards greener energies from fossil fuels.

“Extremely likely” means a probability of at least 95 per cent, up from 90 per cent in the panel’s last report in 2007 and 66 per cent in 2001.

The report, compiled from the work of hundreds of scientists, will face extra scrutiny this year after its 2007 report included an error that exaggerated the rate of melting of Himalayan glaciers. An outside review later found that the mistake did not affect its main conclusions.

Sceptics who challenge evidence for man-made climate change and question the need for urgent action have become emboldened by the fact that temperatures have risen more slowly recently despite rising greenhouse gas emissions.

The IPCC reiterated from the 2007 report that a warming trend is “unequivocal”. And some effects would last far beyond the lifetimes of people now alive.

“As a result of our past, present and expected future emissions of carbon dioxide, we are committed to climate change and effects will persist for many centuries even if emissions of carbon dioxide stop,” co-chair Thomas Stocker said.

The UN’s top climate official, Christiana Figueres, said the report underscored a need for urgent action to combat global warming. Governments have promised to agree a UN deal by the end of 2015 to restrict emissions.

“To steer humanity out of the high danger zone, governments must step up immediate climate action and craft an agreement in 2015 that helps to scale up and speed up the global response,” she said.

The report said that temperatures were likely to rise by between 0.3˚C and 4.8˚C by the late 21st century. The low end of the range would only be achieved if governments sharply cut greenhouse gas emissions.

It also said that world sea levels could rise by between 26cm and 82cm by the late 21st century, driven up by melting ice and an expansion of water as it warms, in a threat to coastal cities from Shanghai to San Francisco.

Report findings

Human responsibility: The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) raised the probability that human activities, led by the burning of fossil fuels, are the main cause of global warming since the mid-20th century to “extremely likely”, or at least 95 per cent, from “very likely” (90 per cent) in its previous report in 2007 and “likely” (66 per cent) in 2001.

Slowing warming this century: The panel said that short, individual periods, such as 1998 which was an exceptionally warm year, are influenced by natural variability and do not, in general, reflect long-term climate trends.

Projected warming: The panel said temperatures were likely to rise by between 0.3˚C and 4.8˚C by the late 21st century. The report uses new computer models that are not directly comparable with scenarios in 2001.

Sea level rise: Sea levels are likely rise by between 26cm and 82cm by the late 21st century, after a 19cm rise in the 19th century. In the worst case, seas could be 98cm higher in the year 2100. The 2001 report projected a rise of 18cm to 59cm, but did not take full account of a melt in Antarctica and Greenland.

Climate sensitivity: The report estimates that a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere would lead to a warming of between 1.5˚C and 4.5˚C, lowering the bottom of the range from 2˚C estimated in the 2007 report. The new range, however, is the same as in other IPCC reports before 2007.