Simon Busuttil’s decision to announce the Nationalist Party’s eight candidates for the European Parliament election right in the beginning of the summer lull is unusual. Normally one would expect the announcement towards the end of September, considering that this election is still 10 months away.

Busuttil has made no secret of his party’s target of increasing the number of Nationalist MEPs to three from the current two – a result that would indicate that the PN has started to recover its popularity from the nadir reached in the general election last March.

His eagerness to start working towards this end seems to have egged him on to present the PN’s list of candidates at a very early stage, giving the public more time to get to know them better with the certainty that they have made it to the official party list.

Meanwhile, there does not seem to be any hurry on this front in the Labour camp. The Labour Party has lost two important members from its delegation at the European Parliament, with Louis Grech and Edward Scicluna having to resign from there after making it to our national Parliament and subsequently to the Cabinet last March. Labour undoubtedly needs to strengthen its candidate list; more so as John Attard Montaldo has decided to call it a day and will not be contesting again.

In spite of this, Labour does not seem to be in any hurry to announce its candidates. Other things that might well impinge on the result of this next election – more than the strength of the respective candidate lists – are probably on the mind of the Prime Minister and his inner circle.

Foremost among these must be next year’s Budget to be unveiled in November. It is no secret that the Finance Ministry has, for many years, utilised the summer spell of lack of activity to dedicate more time to the preparation of the Budget of the following year.

This is exactly what is happening now. The Prime Minister confirmed this when he met a GRTU delegation last Wednesday. During the meeting, he confirmed that the Budget would include reductions in the domestic utility tariffs, adding that this step would leave consumers with more disposable income.

The reduction of these tariffs as from March 2014 is an electoral promise that Muscat can hardly break. This could be brought about without making Enemalta’s financial position even more precarious than it already is, only if by that time Malta would have started importing electricity from the European grid through the Sicily-Malta interconnector and closed the inefficient Marsa power station. Whether this will happen on time is still to be seen.

While this reduction will start in March, other measures to be announced in the Budget will be operative as from January 1, if not earlier. Interestingly, in the same meeting, the Prime Minister also emphasised that the Government is determined to meet its target of bringing down the country’s deficit to less than three per cent of GDP.

The tight situation of the country’s finances could be complicated by over-optimistic revenue forecasts for this year. With the EU’s monitoring eyes straining to examine Malta’s next Budget, the Government can hardly afford to present a budget that would be considered generous to the taxpayer.

It is normal for any administration to present austere budgets in its first two years of the legislature with the hope that it would be able to loosen its tight hold on money as the next general election approaches.

The current financial situation indicates that the present administration has no alternative but to follow this established pattern. In other words, some type of increase in taxation is on the cards. This will not go down well with the electorate and could very well signal the beginning of the end of its fascination with the Joseph Muscat phenomenon. Muscat stands to face his first real dent in his popularity in January when next November’s Budget starts to hit home, followed by some relief at the end of March.

Some type of increase in taxation is on the cards

However, this ‘relief’ will affect family budgets much later, as the first utility bills based on the reduced domestic tariffs will not be in the mailboxes before May.

This timing game is certainly quite intriguing and its overall impact stands to affect the way the vote goes in the European Parliament election at the end of May, probably more than the quality of candidates presented by the two main political parties and the familiarity of the electorate with them.

So the outcome of the next round and the two parties’ fortunes is not very easy to predict at the moment. Basically, much depends on how well – and when – Muscat plays his cards. To me, it does look like a tall order for him to avoid the negative effects of the Budget in the popularity stakes from influencing the vote.

Meanwhile, Busuttil has to sit and wait. He might even attain his target without doing anything at all. But such is the nature of so many electoral advances by parties in opposition, wherever democracy rules.

micfal@maltanet.net

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