There has been a glimmer of hope in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as the two sides met for peace talks in Washington last week after a lull of three years. The fact that direct talks between Palestinians and Israelis have been hailed as a breakthrough in the international media shows just how difficult the situation has become, and one can therefore not be too optimistic about a settlement being reached.
However, the fact that the two sides are now talking is welcome and credit must go to US Secretary of State John Kerry, who has been actively engaged in Middle East diplomacy since taking office, having visited the region six times so far. Some analysts argue that it would have been better had Kerry dedicated the same amount of time and energy towards the situation in Egypt and Syria – certainly a valid observation – nevertheless, the Middle East peace process has been frozen for far too long and an attempt to get it going again can only be welcomed.
“While I understand the scepticism, I don’t share it, and I don’t think we have time for it,” Kerry said last week.
“I firmly believe the negotiators can make peace for one simple reason. Because they must,” he said.
Kerry disclosed that Israeli and Palestinian negotiators intend to reach a ‘final status’ agreement over the next nine months and that another meeting between the two sides will be held in two weeks.
He said “all issues” would be up for discussion and that both parties were committed to “sustained, continuous and substantive negotiations on the core issues that divided them”.
The two sides, however, are far apart on a number of core issues, and Kerry will have to use all his diplomatic skills to try and bridge the gap between the opposing positions, and do his best to act as an honest broker in the negotiations.
On Jerusalem, for example, the Palestinians want East Jerusalem as their capital of a future state, while Israel, which considers Jerusalem to be its ‘eternal capital’, is so far unwilling to divide this historic city.
Another major obstacle is that Israel has continued to build settlements in the West Bank, which the international community considers illegal, and wants to keep the majority of these settlements. The Palestinians, on the other hand, want the borders of their new state to be that of pre-1967 Israel, but concede that some Israeli settlements will stay as part of an overall agreement leading to the creation of a Palestinian state.
The Palestinians also want refugees who became homeless as a result of the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948 to be given the ‘right of return’, something the Israelis categorically reject. Israel, on the other hand, wants recognition by the Palestinians of the Jewish state as an integral part of the Middle East as well as a demilitarised Palestinian state, which will be obliged to cooperate fully with the Israeli security forces.
Another demand by the Palestinians is for any future state to consist of both the West Bank, currently ruled by Fatah, and Gaza, at present run by Hamas. As long as Hamas is in control of Gaza it is doubtful, however, whether Israel will agree to this enclave being part of a Palestinian state.
Furthermore, with 5,000 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, prisoner releases are bound to be requested as part of any comprehensive peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians. In fact, as a sign of ‘goodwill’ Israel last Sunday approved the gradual release of 104 Palestinian prisoners, some of who killed Israelis or Palestinian informers.
The release was controversial, divided Israeli public opinion and was approved by the Cabinet with 13 votes in favour and seven against. So future Palestinian prisoner releases will no doubt prove to be equally contentious and Israel might think twice before going down that path while negotiating with the Palestinians.
Some analysts argue that it would have been better had Kerry dedicated the same amount of time and energy towards the situation in Egypt and Syria
This biggest single stumbling block to a comprehensive peace agreement being reached is without doubt Israel’s refusal to freeze its settlement expansion, let alone dismantle existing settlements. This, of course, is the biggest challenge facing the US – to convince Israel to do just that and to agree to go back to its pre-1967 borders when a Palestinian state is established.
It is good that Palestinians and Israelis agreed to meet without any pre-conditions; however, the settlement issue must be resolved before any real progress can be made. US President Barack Obama did criticise the building of Israeli settlements in his 2009 Cairo speech, but then vetoed similar criticism at the UN Security Council in 2011. Indeed, Obama’s reluctance to take a firmer line with Israel over its settlement policy has been very disappointing.
It is only the US, and nobody else, which has the clout to influence Israel’s behaviour and it should use its friendship with the Jewish state to convince it that time is running out for a peace settlement to be reached. With many parts of the Arab and Muslim world in turmoil, it would be good to get some encouraging news out of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. A just solution for the Palestinian people – with guaranteed security for Israel – would also lessen the appeal of radicalism and al-Qaeda in the Muslim world.
It would also allow the international community to focus more extensively on the very bleak situation in the many parts of the Arab world, such as Syria (where 100,000 people have so far died in the two year conflict), Egypt (where the Muslim Brotherhood is still insisting on Mohammed Morsi’s reinstatement) and Iraq (where over 1,000 people were killed by terrorists in July alone), and to a lesser extent in Libya, Tunisia and Lebanon.
Other situations, such as Iran’s nuclear programme, instability in nuclear-armed Pakistan (which Mr Kerry visited last week – the first by a US Secretary of State since strategic talks on security were suspended by Pakistan in 2011), and tension on the Korean peninsula also require a tremendous amount of focus and attention by Mr Kerry.