It seems ironic to continue to refer to what happened two years ago in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya as an Arab spring. Spring is so joyful, a symbol of revival of life and opportunity. The Arab spring was supposed to bring that to its countries with the establishment of democracy, based on personal freedom and choice.

It has turned out that the thought was no more than wishful thinking.

Egypt saw some fumbling towards democracy. But it proved to be no more than that. Ironically liberal countries have applauded the removal by the army of Presid-ent Morsi. After a year in office Morsi proved to be inadequate for the job. The economy continued to crumble. Promises to reform proved to be mere words. The Government was not inclusive.

Part of Egypt took to the streets again, demanding that Morsi leave or be removed. The army responded by making the same call and then stepping to effect a de facto coup d’état.

Morsi was removed, triggering a strong reaction by his supporters and supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood for his reinstatement. The country now teeters on the brink of civil war. Probably that can only be prevented by further strong-arm tactics by the army.

The irony at the heart of it all is that the Muslim Brotherhood protesters are right, and those who backed Morsi’s removal are wrong. The man had been elected in reasonably free elections with a thumping majority of 52 per cent of the votes cast. That is more than any leader in the liberal democracies (other than in Malta) can boast.

Democracy has to be given a chance to work. It cannot alternate between the ballot box and the bullet. Morsi should have been removed by forcing fresh elections, not through further military intervention. One would have thought that Egypt had had enough of that.

The Arab spring never really dawned in Libya. The revolution was messy. But at least a coalition of diverse interests toppled Gaddafi and his regime. The jubilation that followed offered a move towards a nascent democracy. It still has to happen.

There is a lot of Maltese interest riding on the state of the Libyan economy, which in turn depends much on whether deadly weapons can be taken out of circulation

Two years on, Libya continues to be tormented by military factions, by contrasting claims over the disposal of oil revenues. In many regards Libya is not only as yet not a democracy,it poses fresh danger threats to its citizens and to visitors.

Tunisia was the most likely country where democracy could take root. Yet even there democracy still has to be breastfed into a healthy baby. There is a contradiction in the making, as in the other two countries: Many of those with administrative experience served in the ousted regime. They now face strong opposition.

In Tunisia there is also a divide between secularist supporters and moderate or extreme Islamist factions. A strong divide has also emerged between the country’s largest union, which has found ample space to flap its wings in contrast to its lack of freedom under the dictatorship, and the country’s government.

Industrial action has two object-ives. One to improve working conditions, at times with a very heavy hand. The other to reach a political objective, which is to hamper the regime currently in place.

Democracy is still possible. But it will take years to really grow up.

The post-Arab spring, then, is not a happy story. Ironically, that fact in itself offers opportunities for Malta, as well as deterrents.

The situation in Egypt and Tunisia has meant that their tourist industries could not recover their pre-Arab spring bounce. That has led to positive fall-out for Malta and other competitor countries, like Greece and Spain. It is distasteful to hope that this backhanded opportunity will last for long.

But it will. It offers the chance to consolidate the push towards the growth of our own tourism industry which is partly due to the post-Arab spring turbulence.

There is a lot of Maltese interest riding on the state of the Libyan economy, which in turn depends much on whether deadly weapons can be taken out of circulation and a move towards stability commences in earnest.

Tunisia is both a competitor in tourism as well as an important venue, like Libya, for Maltese investment abroad. Political unease, trade union militancy and occasional deadly disorder give Malta an edge in tourism but severely hamper Maltese interests operating in Tunisia. New investment by Maltese interests is also discouraged.

The uneasy post-Arab spring, then, has mixed fall-out for the Maltese economy. Best of all would be a shift towards peace and prosperity in the three neighbouring countries. Until that happens the positive and negative implications for the Maltese economy should be most carefully handled. Risk is present in every situation. In this one it is double-edged.