[attach id=267721 size="medium"]Japan’s Prime Minister and leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Shinzo Abe. Photo: Issei Kato/Reuters[/attach]
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s ruling bloc won a decisive election victory yesterday, cementing his grip on power but raising the possibility he could lose interest in difficult economic reform and shift focus to his nationalist agenda instead.
The win in the election for Parliament’s upper house gives the hawkish Abe a stronger mandate for his “Abenomics” recipe to revive the economy and sets the stage for the first stable government since popular Junichiro Koizumi left office in 2006.
But it also raises concern about him keeping his victorious party in line.
“The outcome of this election shows that the public wants politics that can make decisions and (a government) that can push forward policies,” Abe told NHK public television.
The win spells a personal political redemption for Abe, who led his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to a humiliating defeat in a 2007 upper house poll in his first term as premier.
The ensuing parliamentary deadlock allowed the opposition to block legislation and led to Abe’s resignation two months later.
That “twisted parliament” has hampered policies for most of the six years since and led to a string of revolving-door leaders.
Abe, 58, who returned to power after a big win in December’s lower house poll for his LDP and coalition partner New Komeito, reiterated that he would remain focused on fixing the economy with a mix of hyper-easy monetary policy, fiscal spending and a growth strategy including structural reforms.
“We’ve argued that our economic policies aren’t mistaken, and the public gave us their support. People now want to feel the benefits. The economy indeed is improving,” Abe said.
“We’d like to do our best to generate a positive cycle – in which job conditions improve and wages rise, boosting personal consumption and prompt companies to invest more – as soon as possible.”
But concerns have already surfaced that the size of the LDP-led bloc’s victory will weaken Abe’s resolve for economic reform in the face of opposition to deregulation from LDP lawmakers with close ties to industries that would suffer from change.
“So far, Abe’s opponents were opposition parties. But from now on, he might find himself having to fight with people within his own party,” said Tomoaki Iwai, a political science professor at Nihon University in Tokyo.
The outcome of this election shows the public wants politics that can make decisions
“It is too early to tell if he can maintain his leadership as he did so far.”
Critics also worry Abe will shift focus to the conservative agenda that has long been central to his ideology, and concentrate on revising the post-war pacifist constitution and recasting Tokyo’s wartime history with a less apologetic tone.
Such a shift, along with moves to strengthen Japan’s defence posture, would further fray ties with China and South Korea, where bitter memories of Japan’s past militarism run deep. Tokyo is already engaged in tense territorial rows with Beijing and Seoul over tiny, uninhabited islands.
“One big question is how PM Abe wants to use this power he now has. Will he continue to focus on an economic agenda, or will be try to use the advantage on his pet projects like changing the constitution,” said Takuji Okubo, chief economist at Japan Macro Advisors in Tokyo.
“Some people think, now that Abe has this very firm majority, both upper house and lower house, he might actually divert away from an economic agenda and spend his political capital on political issues,” Okubo added.
Abe said more debate was needed to win public understanding on constitutional reform.
“I would like to deepen proper debate in a calm and stable situation,” he said.
Abe has declined to say whether as premier he will visit Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine for war dead, where Japanese leaders convicted by an Allied tribunal as war criminals are also honoured. A visit on the August 15 anniversary of Japan’s defeat in World War Two would spark outrage in the region.
A Reuters poll showed Japanese firms generally wanted the LDP to win the election but they worry a landslide victory would allow Abe to prioritise nationalist policies over the economy, as critics say he did during his troubled 2006-2007 term.
Media projections showed the LDP and New Komeito would win more than 70 of the 121 seats up for grabs in the 242-seat upper house. With the coalition’s uncontested 59 seats, that hands it a hefty majority, solidifying Abe’s grip on power and raising the chances of a long-term Japanese leader for the first time since the reformist Koizumi’s rare five-year term ended in 2006.