Tourism authorities are more confident but wary of growth

Tourism authorities in Europe are confident that the industry will continue to grow but are keeping their eyes wide open to what is happening around them.

Europe is still forecast to maintain the highest share of world arrivals

That is the message that Petra Hedorfer, chief executive of the German National Tourist Board, conveyed to an international gathering of journalists at the Germany Travel Mart in Stuttgart.

The United Nations’ World Tourism Organisation is projecting a growth of between three and four per cent this year. Ms Hedorfer, however, preferred to speak of a three per cent increase in relation to Germany, though she was quick to advise caution.

“The going is getting tough and we must become more competitive,” she said, reporting record figures for inbound travel to Germany for the third year in a row.

“It all boils down to prices,” she said, hastening to note that her office was confident that the projected growth would materialise.

“Yet, it all depends on the situation around us, from where we welcome our guests. Thus, we must act more internationally, even in trans-Atlantic terms,” Ms Hedorfer said.

Incidentally, the highest-revenue source market for Germany last year was the US, yielding €4.3 billion, followed by Switzerland (€2.4 billion) and Russia (€2.2 billion).

Germany recorded 68.8 million overnight stays by international travellers last year, up 8.1 per cent. The biggest was the Dutch market, from where Germany attracted 10.9 million visitors, an increase of 2.9 per cent over the previous year.

Travellers from Malta numbered 35,038, up 13.7 per cent, representing a market share of 0.1 per cent, just like Cyprus, Iceland and Estonia.

Figures released by the GNTB show that, last year, there were 281 overnight stays by travellers from Malta at German campsites.

This represented a growth of 75.6 per cent, with the average length of stay being three days.

Global tourism grew by 3.8 per cent in 2012 to reach 1.035 billion international arrivals. Europe remains the biggest source and destination market in international tourism, with 420 million outbound trips last year, 355 million of which were to destinations within Europe.

Germany attracted 45.8 million, or 12 per cent of those 420 million international trips.

Only Spain did better, with 49.3 million trips, and France placed third with 36 million trips.

While outbound travel by Europeans rose by 1.8 per cent, trips to Germany grew by 7.3 per cent.

The number of holidays in Germany grew by 5.5 per cent and business trips by 9.4 per cent. Over 16 million European holidaymakers have been to Germany at least once – 10 million of those visited the country at least four times.

Ms Hedorfer was particularly pleased that “while the population all over is aging, our customers are getting younger and younger”.

Last year, Germany experienced a marked rise – up 17 per cent – in holiday travel among those aged between 30 and 44.

This age group now accounts for 33 per cent of the market.

According to the UNWTO’s Tourism 2020 Vision, international arrivals are forecast to amount almost 1.6 billion by 2020, 1.2 billion being intra-regional and 378 million long-haul travellers.

The top three receiving regions are expected to be Europe – 717 million tourists; East Asia and the Pacific – 397 million; and the Americas – 282 million.

In line with the UNWTO forecasts, East Asia and the Pacific, Asia, the Middle East and Africa are likely to post increases exceeding five per cent, as against a world average of just over four per cent.

Europe and the Americas are expected to report growth rates that will be below average.

Europe is still forecast to maintain the highest share of world arrivals but the 60 per cent share of 1995 will probably drop to 46 per cent in 2020.

No wonder Ms Hedorfer opts for a prudent approach.