As was ordained, Simon Busuttil is going to take over the leadership of the Nationalist Party from Lawrence Gonzi. That the Wednesday vote will give him far more than the necessary two-thirds backing of the councillors is a mere formality. That was ensured by the other main contestant, Mario de Marco, who made a gentlemanly withdrawal from the contest once the first results were known. These gave Busuttil over 50 per cent of the votes and de Marco just over 38 per cent.
The country and the Government need a strong Opposition. Not simply one that rubbishes every government action and proposal with knee-jerks
The victory was not a runaway one, while the defeat was honourable. It was meant to be that way. As it is meant that the PN deputy leader will be Beppe Fenech Adami and the general secretary Chris Said. That plan might be ruffled. As happened when Guido de Marco was defeated by Eddie Fenech Adami for the leadership, there will be those who will press de Marco to stand for the deputy leadership.
Whether he accepts or not will depend on personal inclination and cool judgement. De Marco was the popular favourite, but the councillors, remnants of the Gonzi regime, thought otherwise. Should there be a deputy leader contest between de Marco and Fenech Adami they may do so again. Such a defeat would be too humiliating for de Marco. The only way he can stand for deputy leader, one should think, is if he were given a clear field.
Beyond these immediate considerations the future calls out. Will Busuttil be able to dislodge Labour’s Joseph Muscat from his commanding heights of today’s Maltese politics? To do that eventually he will have to start by persuading Nationalists who voted Labour to return to the fold. That will, in part, depend on Prime Minister Muscat. If he administers as he promised in his electoral campaign, giving everybody his due where it matters, Busuttil’s will be a difficult task.
So far the Prime Minister has largely got the controversial issue of public appointments out of the way. In doing so he has not been as extremely partisan as Gonzi had been as Prime Minister, jamming every nook and cranny of public appointments with Nationalists and fellow travellers. Muscat has placed Labourites in many positions. He has also laced his appointments with some Nationalists, many technocrats and others who are largely apolitical. In addition he has made a few divisive appointments which could and should have been avoided.
The exercise is now almost over. What matters moving forward is how Muscat will govern and the state of the public finances and the economy. What matters for Busuttil will be the extent he can criticise the Government without being destructive, as well as his ability to persuade a broader base than the Nationalists enjoy at present. He has set himself a first target – to capture a third MEP seat in the European Parliament elections due in a year’s time. In this regard he has already bragged, in the leadership campaign, that he is best suited to face Muscat because he knows how he operates from the time they were MEPs together.
That is a weak statement. By the same token Gonzi knew how Muscat operates from five years facing him in Parliament. Muscat still blew him into oblivion. What will matter will not be such bravado claims but the extent to which Busuttil establishes himself as a heavyweight political operator. So far he is an experienced MEP but a lightweight in Maltese politics since he was not in them. His two early incursions – as Gonzi’s handpicked political doctor to win back dissidents, and as his deputy to try to turn the general election round – have been failures.
That will change. The new PN leader will have successes. How much so will depend on hard grind, which he has promised, the performance of the Labour government, and events. The unexpected has a habit of turning things on their head.
From the Nationalist Party standpoint it is essential that Busuttil makes a go of it. That is also very important from the country’s viewpoint and, not so paradoxically, from the Government’s angle. The country and the Government need a strong Opposition. Not simply one that rubbishes every government action and proposal with knee-jerks. But an Opposition that thinks clearly, criticises meaningfully and develops respectable positions and options.
That is how an opposition becomes a real alternative government. That is Busuttil’s challenge.