UK Independence Party surge shocks political establishment

[attach id="251868" size="medium"]UK Independence Party (UKIP) leader Nigel Farage reacts during a media interview outside the Marquis of Granby pub in Westminster, central London. Photo: Reuters[/attach]

The anti-European Union UK Independence Party (UKIP) made sweeping gains in the local elections held in parts of England and Wales last Thursday, sending shockwaves throughout the political party establishment in Britain. The result was particularly damaging for Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservatives, which lost many votes to UKIP.

UKIP received almost 25 per cent of the popular vote, a massive accomplishment, increased its seats by 139 (from eight in 2009 to 147), and even made inroads in some traditional Labour working class areas. The Conservatives lost 335 seats, the Liberal Democrats decreased their number of seats by 123 and Labour gained 291 seats.

In the parliamentary by-election in the Labour stronghold of South Shields, held on the same day as the local elections, the Conservatives were pushed into third place by UKIP, while the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives’ coalition partner, were relegated to seventh place. Labour won with 50 per cent of the vote, UKIP got 24 per cent vote, while the Conservatives got 11 per cent. UKIP had also secured second place in the Eastleigh by-election in March.

Cameron previously referred to UKIP as ‘a bunch of fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists’

UKIP leader Nigel Farage announced on Friday that four-party politics had arrived in Britain while Cameron, who previously referred to UKIP as “a bunch of fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists” had to eat his words and said: “It’s no good insulting a political party that people have chosen to vote for”. He promised, however, to do everything possible to get back disgruntled Conservative voters.

All eyes will now be on the next general election, due to be held in 2015, to see whether UKIP can match its performance in last week’s election, which would really create a political earthquake and probably lead to a hung Parliament yet again.

According to a projection made by the BBC the local election results would, if applied across the UK, give Labour 29 per cent of the popular vote, followed by the Conservatives with 25 per cent, UKIP 23 per cent and the Liberal Democrats 14 per cent.

Perhaps next year’s European Parliament elections will give us an indication of how the UK electorate will vote in 2015.

Although UKIP threatens all political parties, it is the Conservative party that stands to lose mainly from UKIP’s gains. Many Conservative voters are disillusioned with their party, particularly on issues such as the EU, immigration, tax and gay marriage, so Cameron will now be under pressure to turn to the right on some of these issues, in order to make UKIP less attractive to vote for. That, of course, could risk alienating some moderate Conservatives, so Cameron has a difficult balancing act to perform.

Cameron has now hinted, for example, that MPs might be given the right to vote on a proposed EU Referendum Bill in Parliament before the next general election, even though an actual referendum would have to take place in 2017 and would only happen if he wins the next election. It seems that the question of Europe has continued to haunt the Conservatives – this is the legacy of the party’s infighting over Europe over the past two decades.

On gay marriage, I doubt there is anything Cameron can do to win back lost votes. The second reading of a Bill to legalise same sex marriage has already been approved in the House of Commons and it looks like the next reading will also be approved.

Cameron seemed to have made a strategic mistake when he said he was in favour of gay marriage because he went against the beliefs of many of his core voters. Furthermore, he had no electoral mandate to introduce such a measure. According to a ComRes survey of voters before the local elections, 26 per cent of people who voted Conservative in the 2010 election said they would now vote for UKIP because of government plans to legalise same-sex marriage.

Shortly after the results were announced Cameron said: “For the Conservatives I understand why some people who have supported us before didn’t support us again. They want us to do even more to work for hard-working people to sort out the issues they care about. More to help with the cost of living, more to turn the economy round, more to get immigration down, to sort out the welfare system. They will be our focus, they are our focus, but we have got to do more.”

Deputy Prime Minister and Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg, whose party fared badly, said he could understand why voters were attracted to UKIP’s “simple answers” but said he did not think it had the solutions to “complex problems”.

Britain’s first part the post system will obviously not favour UKIP at the general election and the party will have to win plenty of votes in order to win a significant number of seats in Parliament.

However, the fact that it managed to win 25 per cent of the vote in last Thursday’s local elections is certainly food for thought and should create a lot of soul searching among the established political parties.