The eurozone economy will contract by more than expected this year and Budget deficits will decline more slowly, the European Commission said yesterday as it set out forecasts for the next two years.
France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands – four of the five largest eurozone economies – will be in recession through 2013, the Commission’s forecasts showed, with only Germany, the largest eurozone economy, managing to eke out growth.
“In view of the protracted recession, we must do whatever it takes to overcome the unemployment crisis in Europe. The EU’s policy mix is focused on sustainable growth and job creation,” EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said.
“Fiscal consolidation is continuing, but its pace is slowing down. In parallel, structural reforms must be intensified to unlock growth in Europe.”
The Commission said the eurozone economy would shrink 0.4 per cent this year and grow 1.2 per cent next year, revising down its projections from last February of a 0.3 per cent recession and 1.4 per cent growth respectively.
The forecast is roughly in line with the mid-point of the -0.9 to -0.1 per cent range forecast for 2013 by the ECB in March, and the 0.0 to 2.0 per cent growth range seen for 2014.
The expectations underline a shift of focus in the 17 countries that share the euro from sharp fiscal consolidation in the first years of the sovereign debt crisis to economic growth, as earlier radical deficit cuts and European Central Bank action restored some market trust in eurozone finances.
Economic growth will be slower than thought in all the biggest eurozone countries, with France even dipping into a recession of 0.1 per cent, rather than growing 0.1 per cent as forecast in February, the Commission said.
The only positive change against the February forecasts was Greece, where the economy is now seen contracting 4.2 per cent this year, rather than the previous 4.4 per cent.
To reduce the negative impact of fiscal consolidation on growth, the overall eurozone budget deficit reduction will be marginally slower this year and next compared with forecast from three months ago. Country differences are bigger.
The aggregate eurozone deficit is to fall to 2.9 per cent of gross domestic product this year and to 2.8 per cent next year from 3.7 per cent last year – only 0.1 percentage point for each year less than previously envisaged.
But the slower consolidation will be most pronounced in Italy, which is now seen reducing its budget shortfall only to 2.9 per cent of GDP this year from three per cent in 2012, rather than to the 2.1 per cent forecast in February.
The main reason for that is a deeper than expected recession this year and a more modest economic rebound in 2014, when Rome is to bring the budget gap down to 2.5 per cent, against the earlier forecast 2.1 per cent.
France, also in recession, is to have a budget shortfall of 3.9 per cent this year and 4.2 per cent in 2014 unless policies change, against earlier forecasts of 3.7 per cent and 3.9 per cent respectively.
Portugal, on a eurozone financial lifeline, will cut its budget deficit this year only to 5.5 per cent of GDP from 6.4 per cent last year because the recession there will be deeper than expected.
The 2013 target in February was 4.9 per cent.