Kenya’s tourism industry may be a swift winner from the election of Uhuru Kenyatta, owner of hotels and a vast business empire, as east Africa’s biggest economy seeks to benefit from a vote that avoided a re-run of bloodshed of five years ago.
Tourism is a vital sector for the nation of more than 40 million people and was one of the worst hit after a disputed presidential poll in December 2007 led to weeks of tribal blood-letting, scaring away investors and tourists by the planeload.
This time, a row over who won the vote was led by lawyers instead of armed thugs. A reformed judiciary that reviewed the case commands more respect than it ever did, a victory for the rule of law that could also lift business confidence.
As well as seeking more visitors, Kenya wants oil and gas investment to develop hydrocarbon discoveries, funds for a major new port planned in Lamu and other infrastructure, and investors to boost the nation’s position as a regional manufacturing hub.
“Kenyan investment plans previously put on hold because of election-related uncertainty are now likely to be realised,” said Standard Chartered economist Razia Khan.
Foreign investment “may take a while longer to see a meaningful increase but that should also start to rise in the near-term,” she said.
Old problems that annoy business, such as corruption and red tape, have not changed with Saturday’s ruling that confirmed US-educated Kenyatta won in a fair vote against Raila Odinga, who studied in the former communist state of East Germany.
And a Kenyatta presidency comes with other baggage. He is charged with crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court (ICC).
That indictment complicates his personal relations with Western states, although diplomats talk of a “pragmatic” approach that should avoid harming trade ties.
“There is still the broader uncertainty of the ICC case. Whether the charges stand will be closely watched,” Khan said.
Yet from the small-time shopkeeper who ran down stocks for fear of renewed looting to five-star hotel executives fretting about reservations, the nightmare of another spasm of violence has been averted, with just pockets of unrest marring the calm.
“We have clients who were watching to see the outcome of the petition and the reaction that would follow,” said Mohammed Hersi of luxury Whitesands Hotel, Mombasa’s biggest resort. “Now we are good to go. We definitely will have more bookings.”
Two people were killed when dozens of protesters took to the streets in the western city of Kisumu, an Odinga stronghold.
But in Mombasa, another base of Odinga support, a desire to move on outweighed disappointment that their man lost.
Some businesses said 51-year-old Kenyatta, whose family owns the Heritage Group of hotels that range from a beach resort in Mombasa to an Indian Ocean island hideaway in Lamu, could be a boon for tourism. His family’s empire extends to dairies, a major bank and education.
“When Kenyatta was chairman of Kenya Tourism Board (KTB), he was someone we could talk to,” said Suresh Sofat, chief executive of Somak Travel, one of Kenya’s biggest tour firms. “He understood tourism and was fighting hard for us all.”
Challenges remain, not least how Kenyatta will juggle a case in the Hague while running a country. He has insisted he can do both and says he will cooperate with the court to clear his name, welcome words for Western states that have a policy of holding only “essential contacts” with ICC indictees.
Aides of Kenyatta talk of looking east if Western nations spurn their President. But both sides may work hard to avoid that. Chinese imports may almost match those from Europe but 26 per cent of Kenyan exports in 2011 headed to the EU compared to 0.7 per cent that went to China.