All eyes have understandably been on Cyprus this week. The assumptions of the rescue package – that depositors need to contribute and that financial services generally need to be downsized – have wide ramifications for Malta. Not just its economic sector but also what kind of Europe it would like to see.
Malta will need to assess its own interests very carefully
The crisis in Syria, while just across from Cyprus, may seem rather more remote when viewed from the vantage point of Maltese interests. The death toll continues to rise, the news of fresh atrocities does not cease, international condemnation continues to flow. But it’s not quite Libya, is it?
Well, it is and it isn’t. If Syria descends into a post-Assad chaos, the destabilisation of Lebanon, Iraq and, possibly, Palestine and Israel will not affect Malta directly. But the implications for Malta are as ramified as those of Cypriot crisis.
The new Government will need to monitor not just how Syria’s fate will affect its Mediterranean policy. The crisis might end up colouring decisions on Turkey’s application for EU membership, relations with Qatar and Algeria and energy policy.
First, some background.
It is tempting to think of the Syrian crisis as a conflict that pits a brutal regime against a popular coalition, with Russia, China and Iran backing the former (admittedly, with different degrees of enthusiasm) and Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the US and the EU backing the latter. The picture is, in fact, rather more complicated than that.
It’s not just that the popular coalition is internally divided, although this is critical in itself.
Moaz al-Khatib, feted only a few months ago as the new, popular Leader of the Opposition, resigned a few days ago. His resignation was not accepted and he was scheduled to address the Arab League summit in Doha yesterday. But although he accepted to address the League in the name of the Syrian people, he has not held back on his criticism of the international community.
His main reason for resigning was his objection to Qatar’s insistence on its favourite to become the Prime Minister of the transitional Government – a Texas-based businessman with close links to the Muslim Brotherhood. However, al-Khatib has expressed disenchantment with the EU as well: the arms embargo that, in practice, is seeing the Islamist factions of the opposition better armed (by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, depending on the group) and gaining dominance over the non-Islamist grouping of the Free Syrian Army.
Al-Khatib’s declaration, upon resigning, was that it seemed that help was being given not on the basis of the humanitarian crisis (as the international rhetoric claims) but on the basis of whether this or that Syrian group was ready to follow foreign instructions.
The situation is more intricate than even this might suggest, however. While the Syrian opposition is fragmented in multiple ways, their backers have a complicated web of alliances.
Just a few examples.
Qatar and Saudi Arabia back rival Islamist groups while the Islamists as a whole tend to be rivals of the more secular groups backed by the US. Yet, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are, elsewhere in the region, important allies of the US. And while, in Syria, Qatar backs the rebels and Iran backs the regime, they are allies on other issues, notably in gas exploration.
The internal Syrian rivalry and the complicated international alliances may have ramifications that stretch to matters of direct interest to Malta.
First, just like the Iraq war a few years ago (and Afghanistan earlier), the battle for Syria is attracting Islamist fighters from North Africa, including Libya. Battle-proven fighters tend to return home and use their military experience there, if they can’t get their way politically.
Qatar’s international influence, especially over North African governments, will depend on how much Islamists feel they have a reason to be grateful to it.
Second, Algeria has its own take on what’s going on in Syria. Nervous about the implications for its own stability, the Government has repeatedly objected to any extensive recognition of Syria’s rebels, just as it was ambivalent, at best, about the rebellion in Libya. Its policy in North Africa may well change in significant ways if and when Bashar al-Assad falls.
Third, there is Turkey, which is trying hard to establish itself as a regional power and a model for Islamist governments in the Arab world. Its foreign policy, including towards Kurds beyond its borders, is now premised on a deep, long-term strategy based on strengthening its allies in the Middle East and North Africa.
Given the importance of Qatar and Algeria in the energy sectors, and Turkey’s candidacy for European Union membership, Malta will need to assess its own interests very carefully to see whether and how they are affected by the strategies of these three States.
ranierfsadni@europe.com