Politically, to both Lawrence Gonzi and Joseph Muscat, a coalition with Alternattiva Demokratika is possible. They both answered “yes” when at The Big Debate organised by The Times they stated their willingness to form a coalition with Alternattiva if the need arose.
We simply cannot afford perverse results or further institutional uncertainty
The big pity is that Michael Briguglio was not part of the ‘Yes-No’ answer session, so we do not know with whomwould Alternattiva be prepared to form a coalition.
But under our Constitution and electoral law, the political willingness must be brought down to reality since the workings of the electoral system militate heavily against coalition governments, particularly when the extra seats mechanisms in the Constitution, intended to prevent perverse electoral results, are brought into action.
An explanation is due. The whole of Malta and of Gozo become, in effect, one district during the counting of the first preferences by the Electoral Commission. If one party wins the absolute majority of the valid votes at the first count, then a coalition becomes impossible.
Why? The Constitution guarantees that same party to govern with the absolute majority of the seats of the House of Representatives whatever happens during the rest of the counting process to elect the 65 MPs from the 13 electoral districts
How? There is the addition of extra seats to give the party with the majority of votes enough seats to have the majority of seats in the House of Representatives.
Not only. Today, the extra seats must reflect the gap existing between the votes at the first count of the absolute majority party from the votes of all the other parties put together. The percentage gap in votes must be shown in the percentage gap in seats between the absolute majority party and those of all the rest.
Put simply, with a party winning the absolute majority of the votes then it’s no coalition, not even if AD elects seats.
This now brings us to the billboard which famously declared that although we are one nation, we can only vote for one political colour: Either blue or red or , might I add, yellow. This is true.
It is not possible to give the first preference to a ‘coalition’. One is allowed only to put the number one preference next to one individual candidate, and by so doing, only the candidate’s party moves one step closer to the absolute majority of the votes.
A coalition becomes constitutionally possible only should no party win the absolute majority of the valid votes at the first count. Then if Alternattiva elects a candidate it becomes very ‘relevant’, as the current political jargon goes.
Why? When candidates from three parties are elected, then the ‘majority’ constitutional guarantees are disconnected, as it were. However, in so doing the dangers of a ‘perverse result’ happening become real in the light of how our districts are formed.
The districts are not too dissimilar from those of the 2008 elections. Then, the Labour Party won with the absolute majority of three seats despite ending second in votes to the Nationalist Party. Since Alternattiva did not elect an MP, the constitutional majority guarantees were activated, giving the Nationalist Party extra seats to govern with a one-seat majority.
So had Alternattiva elected one seat, Labour would certainly have governed with the majority of the seats without having the majority of votes; hence a perverse result.
It follows that Alternattiva need to elect two seats to make a coalition government possible, and this at Labour’s expense.
Why? The 2008 ‘district’ result was PL 34-PN 31; A coalition would become possible if this result happens: PL 32, PN 31 and AD 2.This allows a coalition either between PN and AD of 33 seats against LP’s 32 seats, or, between PL and AD of 34 seats against PN’s 31.
With just one AD seat elected Labour would still win with the absolute majority: PL33-PN 31-AD 1 and so, once more, no coalition.
The dream of a three-party Parliament is, of course, a legitimate one. Yet it is not one voters consciously vote for under the present electoral and constitutional rules where the first preference is the all-important vote. This is why so few voters include candidates of different parties in their preferences.
For all these reasons, the lack of a pre-electoral agreement between AD and one of the major parties complicates the chances of a three- party Parliament. This means that apart from not having the Budget approved, we would face further waste of precious economic time and uncertainty until the President of Malta determines who has the confidence of a majority of the House of Representatives.
We simply cannot afford perverse results or further institutional uncertainty prejudicing the economic and financial stability we presently have.