Zero hour is only four weeks away. The two big parties are campaigning tirelessly to maximise their national vote tally.
A notable absence on the PN’s list in the second district is Carm Mifsud Bonnici, a surname synonymous with Cottonera- Hermann Schiavone
The outcome in districts is perhaps of secondary concern to parties as the electoral system ensures that the number of seats a party holds in Parliament reflects the proportion of its national first preference votes.
Once the candidate list was made official by the parties, speculation has been rife on how they will fare in districts where contestation is unlike elections past.
Names have changed, the configuration of some districts has been altered and party heavyweights on either side are not contesting again.
In my opinion, the districts to watch in next month’s election are four, all in the south.
In the second district the Labour leader is expected to win more than 10,000 first preferences. The second count, when Joseph Muscat’s surplus is distributed, may be determining for the final outcome.
In 2008 the PN was 400 votes short of two quotas. In this election, PN candidate Stephen Spiteri is expected to receive a considerable number of second preferences behind Dr Muscat, the amount of which may determine where the final seat goes.
However, it still remains hard for the PN to regain the second seat if there is a national swing in Labour’s favour.
A notable absence on the PN’s list in this district is Carm Mifsud Bonnici, a surname synonymous with Cottonera. I am surprised by his absence. Whether this was made out of choice or party’s orders I do not know.
He will surely be sorely missed by all those whom or decades supported generations of Mifsud Bonnicis in the Cottonera district.
The third and fourth districts will be challenging for the PN. In 2008 the PN had just over 500 votes above the two quotas in the third district, while in the fourth district it had a surplus of only 863 votes.
In this election around 1,000 votes in Fgura are transferred from the third to the fourth district. If the transferred area is Labour-leaning the PN may be weakened in the fourth district.
If, on the other hand, the area is Nationalist-leaning, the PN may be risking losing its second seat in the third district.
If there is a national swing in Labour’s favour of two or three percentage points then the PN may be risking losing the second seat in both districts.
Still, the PN’s runner-up candidate of either or both districts may still make it to Parliament if the parties’ national vote tally is close enough to require seat adjustments in the PN’s favour.
The most interesting district is definitely the fifth. Although in 2008 the PN had a comfortable surplus of over 1,100 votes above the two quotas, it has to work hard to retain the two seats it had always won.
This is the only district in Malta for the PN in which no incumbent is contesting. In 2008, the PN’s list consisted of, among others, two ministers and a parliamentary secretary. Louis Galea, Helen D’Amato and Ninu Zammit had many personal votes.
Our electoral system offers rich statistical information beyond the first count that can shed light on the amount of personal votes.
In 2008, when Galea and D’Amato were eliminated, around 200 votes were either transferred to Labour candidates or became non-transferable. These will probably be lost in March’s election.
Zammit’s personal vote will be the determining factor in this district. He has been a Member of Parliament since 1981.
He has been elected in all elections and therefore was never eliminated in the course of the counting process. He has also ever exceeded the quota on the first count. His personal vote is impossible to calculate.
What I can say about Zammit is that over the years he worked tirelessly and I know from personal experience that his personal vote base is strong and runs into the hundreds.
For the purpose of this exercise I am refraining from making any calculations about the impact of my omission from the PN’s candidate list.
What is certain is that in the fifth district the PN will be relying only on its core vote. Whether this is enough to return two MPs remains to be seen.
There are a number of factors influencing the outcome of elections.
Turnout is a major component. If turnout is lower than the usual 90 per cent plus, the outcome in these and other districts will be anybody’s guess.