US presidents traditionally dedicate more time to foreign policy in their second term of office, and hopefully Barack Obama will be no exception. He and his new Secretary of State, John Kerry, have a difficult foreign policy agenda to tackle, which needs a careful balance between multilateral engagement and firm action.

Syria is a major challenge for the Obama administration- Anthony Manduca

The Obama administration will have to face the fact that the conflict in Syria has killed over 60,000 people, Egypt is in turmoil, the Israeli-Palestinian peace process has been frozen for years, relations between Washington and Moscow are not good, Al-Qaeda is on the rise in North Africa and Pakistan, Iran has not budged on its nuclear programme and North Korea continues to defy the international community with its missile tests.

Perhaps the most disappointing aspect of Obama’s foreign policy in his first term of office was the fact that the Middle East peace process went nowhere. Unfortunately Washington was unable to convince Israel to adopt a more flexible position on the building of settlements on Arab land.

However, the shifting political landscape in Israel after the country’s recent election, in which centrist parties made significant gains, could change things for the better. Last week, for example, the Israeli Government reversed its decision taken after the Palestinian status upgrade at the United Nations and transferred tax and customs revenue to the Palestinian Authority to help ease the difficult economic situation.

The US should encourage this trend by Israel but at the same time it should tell its closest Middle East ally that the US is no longer in a position to guarantee support for Israel at every diplomatic forum, such as when it voted against the resolution at the UN to upgrade the Palestinians’ status. Obama should also make it a point to visit Israel, which he did not do in his firm term, and lay out his vision for a two-state solution which respects international law and guarantees Israel’s security.

Syria is a major challenge for the Obama administration and the conflict has started to spill across its borders. It is probably the top foreign policy challenge facing Washington, along with Iran’s nuclear programme and North Korea. Last week, outgoing Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned that Iran has stepped up its military and financial aid to Syria and that Russia continues to supply Syria with money and equipment.

Clinton said that a spilling-over of the conflict into neighbouring countries was “within the realm of the possible now”. Syria last week claimed Israeli war planes had bombed a military research centre north-west of Damascus. Some observers believe a convoy carrying weapons (possibly chemical) bound for Hezbollah in Lebanon were hit by the Israelis.

The Syrian conflict is very complicated and there are certainly no easy solutions. Obama’s cautiousness in his first term was partly due to the advice he was given by some of Syria’s neighbours, namely Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon, who told the President not to make a difficult situation worse by intervening.

Obama, together with the EU and Arab League must try to create a new strategy, aimed at stabilising the situation, preferably with Russia’s support. No-fly zones should be given serious consideration, as should contingency plans to protect the Christian and Alawite minorities when the Assad regime finally collapses.

Obama needs to be more engaged with the Arab Spring countries and remind the leaders of such countries that American economic support will be based on their commitment to democratic values. America cannot turn these countries into fully-fledged democracies with the wave of a magic wand but Obama can play a major role in guiding them to respect human rights and the rule of law.

Managing these Arab countries’ transformation could be a major legacy of the Obama presidency, in the same way that President George H. Bush successfully handled the collapse of the Soviet Union and the fall of communism in Eastern Europe.

Obama managed to severely weaken al-Qaeda in his first term of office, but its affiliates are growing in many areas such as North Africa, Mali, Nigeria, Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia. Al-Qaeda remains a major challenge to the US and the world, and difficult choices will have to be made. A review of whether the increasing use of drones is the correct approach in certain countries such as Pakistan would also be in order.

Iran’s nuclear programme re­mains a major concern. Ex-US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger warned at Davos recently of a crisis involving a nuclear Iran in the “foreseeable future”. He said nu­clear proliferation in the region triggered by an armed Iran would increase the chances of a nuclear war, which he called “a turning point in human history”.

Obama will have to tread carefully over Iran, and should at some point consider direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran. There is also the possibility that he will be unable to persuade Israel not to attack Iran, which would have grave consequences. The US will have to rely on strengthening its sanctions against Iran, which have hurt Teheran, as well as pursuing a diplomatic option, preferably toget­her with Russia. A military option, of course, will remain in the cards, but hopefully will not be resorted to.

North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes remain a serious threat to international peace and security, as well as a direct threat to the US. Ideally, Washington should push for the resumption of the six-nation talks that collapsed four years ago to address the North Korean situation.

Obama could also do with China’s help here. Two weeks ago, North Korea’s long-time ally voted in favour of a UN Security Council resolution condemning North Korea’s rocket launch. Such a move by Beijing is certainly encouraging.

Other major foreign policy challenges for Obama include improving relations with Russia, stabilising Afghanistan, climate change and shaping a solid relationship with China, which was described recently by The Economist as “the most important bilateral relationship in the world”.

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