The business community must be wondering with some trepidation what sort of turnover it will register over the coming two months, until the general election campaign is over, while at the same it will itself be weighing the desirability of taking investment decisions now, or postponing them.
One factor about which the business community will be uncertain concerns reckless behaviour by some partisan elements- Lino Spiteri
The second point should be the easiest to resolve. Grantedthat general elections bring uncertainty along with them, but the coming one should be very light in that regard.
The policies of the Nationalist Party are well known by now. They are being practised. In fact they are known 12 months ahead. That was the whole purpose of presenting the Budget for 2013, notwithstanding the certainty that it would not be passed because Franco Debono had vowed to vote against it if Austin Gatt remained in the Cabinet. The purpose was purely political. It was the PN saying you know our fiscal and economic policy already, and this is how we shall modify it during 2013 if you re-elect us. That begs the question – why then, is the party’s new deputy leader talking so much about change, after the Prime Minister opened that line before the new participant’s arrival?
In the case of how the Prime Minister put it, he meant that the country did not need change from present policies. It merely had to reappoint a Nationalist government to ensure continuity. We are all the change you need, said the Prime Minister.
His deputy meant something else. Simply remember that he had been called into the fray by the Prime Minister to go after disgruntled Nationalist voters to try to persuade them to go back into the fold, where they would be welcomed and all would be forgiven. That was perceived by some observers as an anointment. The man called to the rescue quickly ensured that the idea caught on.
He is making no bones about his conviction that all the change the Nationalist Party needs is to have him at the top. He’s close. And the next nine weeks will see more thumping on his chest to make sure that nobody misses the point.
As for the Labour Party it decided to play more than fair to try to avoid uncertainty. In the knowledge that new budget proposals would have to be discussed with Brussels if it won the election, it gave its word that it would implement the good things in the estimates. That was a dangerous card to play since it could be interpreted, as the PN quickly did, that Labour had faith in the Nationalist Government.
That’s for Labour to consider and to counter-attack. Its point that it would not tear up the budget offers certainty to the business community, a change from the frequent uncertainty of the past at this time of the political cycle. That will help ease the mind andmight not hold up business investment decisions.
When it comes to the other point regarding consumers, it is quite a different matter. Consumers are not as sophisticated as business people and their consultants when it comes totaking decisions.
For them a general election is a question of uncertainty, however the competing parties dress it up.
It may be, therefore, that consumption of durables and non-essentials will falter somewhat as consumers wait to see what the election outturn would be, and in particular if it will have any effect on the price level. This factor will feature in the election debate. Labour will say that the price level is high. The PN will not agree but will still try to bring it down.
In this regard business people will be more than happy when the general election is over to allow them to see clients will return to their normal consumption patterns.
One factor about which the business community will be uncertain concerns reckless behaviour by some partisan elements. Hotheads tend to anticipate results and will be out to air their views in the harsh way they know how, with a lot of noise and perhaps worse. The political parties will warn their supporters against violence. There ought to be none. But one never knows in Malta.
In this regard, the police have the leading part to play. They should make it obvious right from the start that they will stand for no nonsense.
That is why it was surprising that permits were given to the main parties to hold political activities in Gozo on the same day.
If that is not an invitation to trouble, even of the accidental type, I don’t know what is.
Whatever the outcome the business community will be glad when the electoral campaign is over. The year 2013 will bring them more than enough problems to deal with, especially from the external sector.