Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi revived his historic alliance with the far-right Northern League yesterday and stepped back from his leadership bid in a deal to shore up support ahead of February elections.
“An agreement has been signed,” Berlusconi told RTL television, after weeks of uncertainty over whether his People of Freedom (PDL) party could heal a rift with the League to run together in battleground regions in the north of the country.
“Berlusconi is head of the coalition and while there is no candidate yet for premiership, I can explicitly say it will not be Berlusconi,” the League’s head Roberto Maroni said at a press conference yesterday.
Italy’s complex electoral system means that the PDL needs the League onside to scoop up key votes in the north, while the Eurosceptic northern party has been hit hard by fraud scandals and was unlikely to survive without the PDL.
“It is a forced marriage. Both parties would have been in trouble without this coalition,” said Franco Pavoncello, politics professor at the John Cabot University in Rome.
The deal could see the left, led by cigar-chomping Communist Luigi Bersani, win a strong majority in the lower house of Parliament but crucially give the PDL and League a majority in the Senate, should the vote in the north be split.
“Given the electoral system, the pact was inevitable,” said James Walston from the American University in Rome.
But he added: “Strategically, the deal doesn’t make sense because the parties hate each other. They have different agendas and different points of view.” Talks between the PDL and the League in recent weeks have been tense.
Many members of the anti-immigrant party have fiercely resisted forming a new alliance with Berlusconi and the deal hinged on Maroni’s demands that the billionaire media magnate withdraws his candidacy for premier.
Berlusconi said the post of prime minister “will be decided if we win” but could go to the PDL secretary Angelino Alfano – a sign the former prime minister may be giving up on his bid to lead Italy for the fourth time.
“Berlusconi is hedging his bets because he knows he’s become a liability,” Walston said.
An opinion poll last week on the upcoming February 24-25 election put Berlusconi and the PDL in second place with 19.5 per cent, behind the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) far in the lead with 35.3 per cent of voting intentions.
The new deal however has widened the gap between the PDL and its challengers.
“The deal with the League is an important move, nudging votes for the new coalition up to 25 per cent,” Pavoncello said.
But while the parties have been long-time allies, some observers warn that the latest alliance with Berlusconi may see traditional League voters desert the party.
“The risk is high, because the League’s electoral base does not want an agreement with Berlusconi and the alliance will not be easy for them to stomach,” said Stefano Folli, political commentator for Il Sole 24 Ore daily.