The Budget presented yesterday is a Budget like few others have been. For one thing, it was presented in the last months of the sitting government of GonziPN. The Minister of Finance could have presented it later, to be passed in the New Year. There are financial and constitutional provisions for that. But they would not have given the Prime Minister any extra political timing advantages, which is what he is after.

Political games aside, we should consider Malta’s interests first and foremost- Lino Spiteri

Except for one important factor – the Government is not sure that the Budget debate will run its course to the end of the year, leaving space for discussion of corporation estimates and calling a general election after that, any time between March and some weeks later.

That is the Prime Minister’s preference. As leader of the Nationalist Party he needs as much time as possible to try to recover lost ground, among other things through the election of a new deputy leader of his party. But he cannot be sure of that option. It all depends on the whim of maverick Nationalist MP Franco Debono.

The angry MP, cast out by his party according to the design – so he believes – of Austin Gatt, has said and reiterated that it will give him great pleasure to block the Budget. Nobody can really guess him out in what he means by that. He has a record of similar threats, only to choose the softest option and abstain, leaving it to Mr Speaker to rescue the Government.

He holds the cards close to his chest as to how he will play them, but the options are clear enough.

Dr Debono can vote against the Government after the Prime Minister makes his winding up speech on the motion of the Minister of Finance to go into committee to discuss the Budget details. If he does that, the Government will fall. The Prime Minister will be forced to go to the President and advise him to issue a writ for a general election. Gonzi will take as long as permitted to do that, and will then play the martyr card, raising anger against Debono for having brought down his own government.

I have a feeling that will not happen. Debono will abstain on the motion. And, if Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando and Jesmond Mugliett, vote with the Government, the Speaker will, as embarrassed as he may be, save Gonzi’s bacon yet again.

That will allow the debate on ministerial votes to be proceeded with. The question will become what will Franco Debono do when Austin Gatt’s expenditure votes come to the vote? If he has an ounce of consistency and pride in him, Franco Debono, by his own words, will vote against and the Government will fall. The Prime Minister will be forced to call an election in the above indicated scenario.

If Franco Debono does not throw out Austin Gatt’s voice he will have a last chance of bringing down the Government on the vote of the motion to go into committee. If he votes ‘no’, bye bye GonziPN. If he abstains, Debono will go down in history as a pitiful figure.

Gonzi will survive and be free to call the election with the following three or four months.

Among all these shenanigans, what of the Budget votes themselves? If they are passed, with the Speaker’s casting votes or not, the Government will be in clover. Its electoral promises, such as to broaden the 25 per cent income tax band, will be made much of. That could boomerang as pure government spin and efforts to climb its own greasy electoral pole. But people, Gonzi will hope, have short memories.

If the Budget votes are not passed, no crisis will occur. A Legal Notice will be issued effectively extending the rights incorporated in 2012. The Government will be able to govern for some four more months.

But that would be government in extremis. The near equivalent of the US cliff hanger.

The Prime Minister, if he has any self-respect left, and if he respects Malta as a serious nation, should avoid the situation.

In brief, either the Budget 2013 should pass before the end of the year, or the date of the general election should be announced by the Prime Minister without further debilitating delay.

It is really the time to remember that, political games aside, we should consider Malta’s interests first and foremost.