America’s presidential election on Tuesday is expected to be very close and the latest polls show the two candidates, President Barack Obama and his Republican challenger Mitt Romney, neck and neck in terms of the popular vote.
Both parties are confident that their candidate will win- Anthony Manduca
Both parties are confident that their candidate will win and the latest ‘poll of polls’ show the two contenders with roughly 49 per cent of the vote each.
The election is so close that Obama’s handling of Superstorm Sandy, which received praise from the Republican Governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, as well as the latest consumer confidence figures released on Friday, could work in the President’s favour and give him a slight edge over Romney.
Obama’s endorsement by New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, a former Republican, could also help the President pick up votes from independent voters.
However, it is not clear how the latest jobs figures for October, also released on Friday, will affect Obama. Data showed that 171,000 jobs were added to the economy last month, compared to 114,000 in September, but the unemployment rate increased to 7.9 per cent from 7.8 per cent.
The overall thrust of this election can be summed up in three words: economy, economy, economy; or better still, jobs, jobs, jobs. Romney’s main argument is that Americans are worse off than they were four years ago and that the unemployment and debt figures are unacceptably high. Obama’s position is that he inherited a disastrous economic situation – the worst since the Great Depression – and his policies have made things better. The President insists the economy is moving in the right direction.
Before the presidential debates began a month ago Obama had a comfortable lead in most of the swing states and Romney seemed unable to dent the President’s lead.
Although many voters were attracted to Romney’s economic message, Obama was by far a more attractive, likeable candidate. Many people remained suspicious of Romney, considering him to be ‘wooden’ and detached from the average person’s everyday concerns; his millionaire status did not help.
Furthermore, the Republican candidate’s “47 per cent” remark which emerged in September when a video of a private campaign event was leaked almost ended his campaign.
However, things started to turn around when the debates were held last month. The first debate, which focused on economic policy, was easily won by Romney who did a good job of changing this image, especially with his constant reference to the need for job creation and the difficulties faced by Americans today. Obama, on the other hand, appeared to be on the defensive.
The debate had a positive effect on the polls for Romney and this trend continued after the second and third debates, even though Obama probably had the edge in both these contests.
Obama and Romney have clashed over the economy and taxation and, of course, over ‘Obamacare’. As President, Obama signed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, a $768 billion package of tax cuts and investment in education, infrastructure, energy research, health and other programmes. He also bailed out the US auto industry.
Both measures, in my opinion, probably saved the American economy from collapsing.
Obama has cut taxes for most Americans and has promised to repeal the Bush-era tax cuts for households making more than $250,000 a year. He has also proposed to increase the tax rate for millionaires.
Obama’s health reform, through his Affordable Care Act, extended health insurance to more than 30 million people who were previously uninsured. This was a landmark piece of legislation, but also a very controversial one, bitterly opposed by Republicans.
Obama also passed important Wall Street and banking regulations.
Romney has made much of the fact that 12.1 million Americans are still unemployed, and nearly five million have been looking for work for more than 27 weeks. The US unemployment rate in September, however, fell to its lowest rate since January 2009, 7.8 per cent, but increased slightly to 7.9 per cent last month – still a very high rate for an incumbent President seeking re-election.
Romney has promised to repeal Obamacare and the Wall Street and banking regulations, as well as to reduce federal government spending – even though he has pledged to increase Defence Department spending by $100 billion.
The Republican candidate has said he will make all Bush-era tax cuts permanent, further cut individual income tax rates, eliminate taxes on investment income and reduce the corporate income tax rate. Romney says he will make up the revenue lost in tax cuts by closing certain tax loopholes.
The two candidates have also clashed over immigration policy and energy and have opposing views on abortion and gay marriage. Even though these latter two social issues have not featured prominently in this election Obama’s position on them could work against him in some of the swing states where religious views are taken seriously.
On foreign policy Obama has made much (rightly so) of Osama bin Laden’s killing and that of al-Qaeda leadership. Romney appears to adopt more of a pro-Israeli position than his opponent and would probably adopt more of a hardline attitude towards Iran’s nuclear programme. Foreign policy, however, has not been a major issue in this election.
To win the presidency a candidate must win 270 Electoral College votes out of a total of 538. Romney has 191 guaranteed from the ‘safe’ Republican states while Obama has 222 from the ‘safe’ Democrat states. I am considering both Pennsylvania and Michigan – once considered swing states – as ‘safe’ Democrat states. Should Obama lose either of these states he will lose the election.
The remaining 11 states, the real swing states, will determine the outcome of this election. Some of these states have consistently backed Obama in the polls, others have backed Romney while some have switched from Obama to Romney. In a handful of these states the candidates are literally neck and neck in the polls and the result can go either way.
For what it’s worth, here is a possible scenario regarding how the swing states could vote: Minnesota (10 votes), Nevada (6), New Mexico (5), Ohio (18), Colorado (9) and Wisconsin (10) for Obama; Florida (29), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15) and Virginia (13) for Romney. That would give Obama a total of 280 Electoral College votes compared to 258 for Romney.
However, in New Hampshire, Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin, the contest is really tied and the result in these individual states could go either way. If, for example, Romney wins Colorado and Wisconsin, which is very plausible, as well as the states I have indicated he could win, he will be elected President. In such a scenario Romney would also win if he had to lose either Iowa or New Hampshire but not both.
Another possible scenario is that Romney will win the popular vote while Obama will be re-elected President with a small majority of Electoral College votes. Since the election is going to be so close, it is even possible that there will be a tie in the Electoral College count which each candidate getting 269 votes.
In such a case, the House of Representatives, which will continue to be controlled by the Republicans, will choose the President, which means Romney will be the next occupant of the White House.