Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich’s pro-business ruling party led in a national election yesterday and seemed likely to keep its majority in Parliament, exit polls showed, despite a strong showing by the combined opposition.

Two exit polls issued when a day of voting ended showed Yanukovich’s Party of the Regions in the lead with between 28 per cent and 30.5 per cent of the voting in the part of balloting conducted by party lists.

But the united opposition, which includes the Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) party of Yanu-kovich’s jailed opponent Yulia Tymoshenko, took around 24 per cent while the opposition UDAR liberal party of boxing champion Vitaly Klitschko was on around 15 per cent.

There were no immediate available figures for how this would translate into seats in the 50-member single-chamber Parliament.

But Prime Minister Mykola Azarov said the ruling party was the clear victor while another senior leadership figure said the final results would show the Regions holding a majority.

“The exit poll data speaks for itself. It is clear the Party of the Regions has won... These elections signal confidence in the President’s policies,” Azarov told journalists.

But Arseny Yatsenyuk, head of the united opposition in the absence of Tymoshenko, said: “The exit poll results have shown that the people of Ukraine support the opposition and not the government.”

Candidates voted in on party lists account for half of the seats while the other 225 seats will be decided by voting in individual constituencies on a first-past-the-post basis – a feature which is assumed to favour the Regions party.

Though the exit polls showed some decline in support for the Yanukovich government which is unpopular because of its tax and pension policies, the figures suggested the Regions might be able to form a majority especially if it was supported by allies such as the communists.

Borys Kolesnikov, a deputy prime minister, went further, saying he foresaw the Regions picking up two thirds of these single-mandate constituences, handing the Regions a majority. Victory by the Regions is certain to cement the leadership of Yanukovich who comes up for re-election in 2015 and whose rule has been marked by an accumulation of presidential powers and antagonism with he West over Tymoshenko’s imprisonment.

With the West seeing the poll as a test of Ukraine’s commitment to democracy, interest will focus on the judgment that international monitors will hand down.

Observers from the OSCE European security and human rights body today are to give their judgment on how fair and free they perceived the poll to have been.

A positive assessment could improve Yanukovich’s image before Ukraine takes over the organisation’s chair in January. The former Soviet republic of 46 million is more isolated internationally than it has been for years. Apart from being at odds with the US and the EU over Tymoshenko, Ukraine does not see eye to eye with Russia which has turned a deaf ear to Kiev’s calls for cheaper gas.

At home, the government is also blamed for failing to stamp out corruption and has backed off from painful reforms that could secure much-needed IMF lending to shore up its export-driven economy. But the Regions, which is bankrolled by the country’s wealthy industrialists, should have no difficulty in forming a majority with the communists.