Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi was politically very nimble in the wake of John Dalli’s controversial resignation as a European Commissioner. He tilted his whole being towards how he could exploit the situation to his party’s advantage. I have no problem with Tonio Borg’s nomination. He is affable, intelligent and correct.

Much work has already been done, by Gonzi himself, to suggest that Busuttil could be his party’s saviour in the coming elections- Lino Spiteri

The fuss being made about some of his conservative beliefs will not lead to a blocking of his way forward. Some MEPs might hum and haw but, in the end, Borg is not going to the EU to review its sense of values.

He’ll make a good Commissioner. But the fact is that Gonzi, as he was reminded from within his own Nationalist base, could have used the occasion to act in a more statesman-like manner. He could have appointed a personality from outside politics to raise his and Malta’s profile a few notches. It was possible.

Michael Zammit Cutajar was mentioned (by Labour MEP Edward Scicluna). He would have been a brilliant apolitical but technically sound choice. There were a few other similar possibilities. But the Prime Minister, donning his Nationalist Party leader hat, would have none of that.

He had his eyes on the state of the party and was solely motivated by that consideration. He obviously felt a change at the top would suit him and the PN’s electoral fortunes. Without as much as blinking, therefore, he kicked Borg out and upstairs. That political significance should not be lost.

Borg, still in his early 50s, could look to succeeding Gonzi if he won the coming election and retired fairly soon afterwards. That chance is gone.

A very active politician will now adopt the profile of an EU Commissioner with little to do with Malta. He’ll be there till 2014 and then, whoever wins the election in Malta, will come back to a political limbo.

The reason why the PN leader was so calculating towards his erstwhile deputy is simple – he wanted him out to give him political space to revamp the party.

That will take place with the election of a new PN number two, and potentially a new minister. The plot could prove to have wheels within wheels and might also give rise to some resentment.

One does not have to move close to the Nationalist Party Pietà headquarters to get a broad hint of the way things could go. The line is out that the PN effective power group – Gonzi, Richard Cachia Caruana, Austin Gatt, a roped-in Joe Saliba – want Busuttil to be part of the leadership. Already singled out by the PN leader for quasi-anointment, he is seen to be the great hope of the Nationalist Party. This line and the people behind it will surely make the potential contenders ponder on whether to allow their name to go forward.

If they know that they do not stand a chance against the party machine, will they wish to be sure losers, or will they want to keep their powder dry for the Big Apple of the leadership when the time comes? Do not be surprised, then, if Busuttil is not contested.

That could lead to another mighty step forward. Borg’s departure will require a by-election to be held. If it is contested, a new MP will be elected, putting paid to the likelihood of a new ministerial appointment. But, what if the power group leans on the potential by-election candidates to persuade them not to contest?

In that not unlikely scenario, the Nationalist Party will be able to co-opt someone who is not in the same constituency – or who has not contested the 2008 election at all, as Labour did in Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici’s case. Busuttil slots smoothly into this scenario and he can also look forward to a Cabinet post on arrival.

Are mine wild fantasies? Not if you consider the glumness within the PN, which sees itself continuously outpaced by Joseph Muscat’s Labour Party. Any manoeuvre which might change that situation will be considered, even by the rank and file. Much work has already been done, by Gonzi himself, to suggest that Busuttil could be his party’s saviour in the coming elections. The two steps I outlined will fit into that framework.

Don’t be surprised if a few bets are made along the lines I suggested above. Stranger things have happened in party affairs…

• What, exactly, is circumstantial evidence? I am not a lawyer, so I will not attempt an explanation, not even by googling for information or getting a briefing from one of my legal friends. But a possible example has been niggling me since Dalli recounted how Commission President José Manoel Barroso shoved him out although there was, by the Commission spokesman’s own words, no legal case against him.

Suppose that the President’s abruptness in locking Dalli out leads to delays in the progress of the amendments to the EU’s tobacco directives?

Who would gain? By all accounts the tobacco lobby, for whom every day gained is more money in the bank.

In that scenario, Barroso would have fed gains into the pockets of the tobacco lobby.

Is that circumstantial evidence that Barroso was somehow in cahoots with the lobby? Possibly. I have no doubt that he was not.

Yet it’s easy to get a bit confused when one starts playing about with anything but hard evidence that can stand up to scrutiny in a court of justice.