Many have been flabbergasted with the timing of the John Dalli resignation shambles – astounded at the perfect timing that seems to have created favourable circumstances to the PN at this stage of the electoral game. It could, of course, be sheer coincidence.

An acquaintance of mine, an avid Labour supporter, remarked to me – in protest but half jokingly – that God is a Nationalist- Michael Falzon

The John Dalli saga has had three important positive effects on Lawrence Gonzi’s fortunes. First it tends to strengthen the idea that the Prime Minister had always held the moral high ground with regard to his clashes – whether overt and covert – with Dalli’s position on different issues.

This is not to say that Dalli is guilty of anything except of rushing in where angels fear to tread; but, as always, it is perception that really counts.

This time Dalli’s efforts to clear his name are a very steep uphill struggle and will certainly not be resolved in the way he hopes before the election early next year.

Secondly, this development has put paid to the possibility of Dalli contesting the election, with the obvious intention of being ready to bounce when the expected rout of the PN materialises.

Thirdly, the nomination of Tonio Borg to replace Dalli in the European Commission has opened up a PN deputy leader vacancy, leading to a strange quick contest on the eve of the election; so giving the opportunity of raising the hopes of all those PN supporters who have sincerely felt the need for change within the party as they consider the present jaded PN leadership does not deserve to be returned to power.

Considering this turn of events, an acquaintance of mine, who is an avid Labour supporter remarked to me – in protest but half jokingly, of course – that God is a Nationalist; while an equally avid PN supporter insisted that Lawrence Gonzi has had such a run of bad luck that it was about time that Lady Luck changed its attitude. Take your pick – both theories are based on the assumption that this turn of events was the result of sheer coincidence.

Then there are those who insist that all this must be the result of a well planned conspiracy, even quoting – and misinterpreting – Eddie Fenech Adami’s well known expression to the effect that nothing happens by coincidence (Xejn ma jiġri b’kumbinazzjoni).

If I read Eddie correctly – and by now I believe I have managed to overcome the many hurdles resulting from his Jesuit culture – I understand that his expression was a result of his firm faith in divine providence.

For him, behind any strange turn of events there was no ordinary mortal’s hidden hand producing so many rabbits from the hat, but something much more sublime. This explains everything: because even when there is obviously a plot directed by some mortal’s hidden hand, it would still be divine providence that allowed the events to take place. Come to think of it, this is not much different from my Labour acquaintance exclaiming that God is a Nationalist.

Undoubtedly, the big plus was not the ‘putting Dalli in a bad light’ development but the way the road has been opened up for the election as PN deputy leader of a young apparent future successor of Gonzi.

The funny thing about this is that while the PN statute obliges the party’s general council to take a vote of confidence in the leader after every general election, it imposes a fresh contest for the deputy leadership.

This means that while the PN leadership post is ‘forever’ barring death, resignation or a vote of no-confidence, the deputy leader’s tenure expires with every general election.

This also means that the deputy leader that is to be elected to replace Borg will only serve in this post for a few months; theoretically, of course, as he may be re-elected after the general election.

This leads to an intriguing situation, with the party machine trying to persuade those having (secret) leadership ambitions not to contest at this point so that currently the party presents a unified image to the public with just the ‘anointed one’ contesting a one-horse race.

If this ruse succeeds, the net effect would be to give the ‘anointed one’ the advantage of being the incumbent in the post-election contest.

There is a historic parallel with this. When Guido de Marco was appointed President, Dalli and Louis Galea were persuaded not to challenge Gonzi for the deputy leadership on much the same grounds, with the real race being postponed to when the contest for Fenech Adami’s successor would take place. By that time, Gonzi’s hold on the party machine (or was it the other way about?) was well established. The rest is history.

Will history repeat itself and will the party machine have its way once again? It is perhaps incredible, but the truth is that the only PN leadership race in which the party machine did not have a finger in the pie was the Fenech Adami-de Marco contest in 1977. Quite a coincidence.

micfal@maltanet.net