Loyal born-again Nationalists
If there were any doubt that the Nationalist Party is digging deep and hard to rally all the troops and resources for the approaching poll, just have a look at the news headlines.
Many close to the PN are starting to feel buoyant that this election might not be a walkover after all even though the surveys are not at all heartening for the PN. Then again, the PN, some insiders told me, has always shown itself to be at its best when bushwhacked.
Apart from the fact that no one likes to lose an election, this election becomes weightier on so many levels for the PN.
Firstly, this is the first time in some three decades that the PN has a proper opposition, in terms of an organised party that is well set for an election battle.
Secondly, this is an election versus the Labour Party but also Franco Debono and, to a lesser extent, Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando and Jesmond Mugliett, the out-of-favour and ostracised objectors.
In other words, the PN has been hit by its own.
Thirdly, this is an opportunity for many neoteric publics in the (Nationalist) party to show that with the loss of people like Guido de Marco, Austin Gatt, Louis Galea, Louis Deguara, Ninu Zammit, Dolores Cristina, Ugo Mifsud Bonnici, Eddie Fenech Adami and so many other generals, the party is still there for the taking and they can fill ‘their’ boots with honour.
Fourthly, the no-confidence votes in deposed Minister Carmelo Mifsud Bonnici and present Minister Joe Cassar have incensed the Prime Minister big time. Judging by the tone of his voice on the Granaries when addressing the Independence Day meeting gathering, it looks like he’s had enough.
It is a renowned fact that, love him or loathe him, the Prime Minister is extremely loyal to his team and, knowing him, this would have spurred him to give even more of himself to make sure that righteousness be done.
As I’ve said on other occasions, a longish campaign does not seem to work to the advantage of the Labour Party. The PL, if not watchful, will be wasted because it faces an opponent that is raring to go.
An issue that will factor in during the forthcoming (official) electoral campaign is that, even though the PL leads the polls, the PN has the advantage of being in government. Whether it is the power of incumbency or whatever else you want to call it, it’s there for the taking. Needless to say, a number of people who have been given responsibility, power and importance will feel endangered and, so, will be keen to make sure they persist in their roles.
Even though this looks like it’s going to be a straight and clear PL victory, a great deal is still in the making, I am sure.
What I believe the PN will bank on is the inexperience of Joseph Muscat together with a strong campaign based on the guarantee that what ‘I’ have today, will remain, in other words an updated version of the par idejn sodi (safe pair of hands) campaign.
If the PN manages to pull a rabbit from its hat somehow reassuring people that there is light at the end of the electricity and water bill tunnel, then I wouldn’t be surprised if, against all odds, the PN triumphs.
In addition, the PN has managed to draw out from the cupboard the “freeze” that was so representative of the Malta Labour Party in the 1980s. The PL will surely be kicking itself for allowing this skeleton to emerge.
On the other hand, Labour will be calling the shots, possibly on three points.
Firstly, reassuring continuity and permanence; secondly, drifting away from the core socialist traditions based on “community first and foremost” to “your individual choices and aspirations matter” and, finally, promising that the water and electricity tariffs will be cut.
Even though this last ruse worked wonders for the PN in the1998 election, I don’t think this promise will have that much impact this time round in actually swinging voters to go for the PL.
I’m beginning to think that with what is happening in neighbouring Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy, among others, people are sluggishly starting to realise that it’s better that the rates are a bit higher than one would expect then risk losing out on other fronts.
In my view, the effect of all the in-house clamour that has been going on these last months within the PN has left an ineffaceable impact but has also (re-)turned a number of devotees who have drifted away from the party and are now ready to be born-again Nationalists.
Despite all this, I believe this election will be decided in the last straight. It will be the party with the best package in terms of “what there is for me to gain?” together with the endurance of its leaders that will make the finish line first.
The author is senior lecturer at the Department of Youth and Community Studies of the University of Malta.
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Vincent Cassar
Oct 19th 2012, 09:49
It looks like this Azzopardi is revealing his true colours...Some people simply like to make fools of themselves for some limelight. This guy comes across as jack of all trades and master of none. What is his expertise anyhow? Political science, political predictions or political opportunism??? But I like the part on Greece, Spain...shows what political insight this S lecturer has (sic)
Eddy Privitera
Oct 18th 2012, 22:58
Andrew: How come with all the " inexperience" of Dr. Muscat which you mentioned, he has manged to beat Lawrence Gonzi in all the political contests since he took over the leadership of the party ? And has attracted well-known "nationalists" to the PL's candidates list ?
mark borg
Oct 18th 2012, 20:21
wow what a dreamer !
Tony Scicluna
Oct 18th 2012, 17:36
Andrew, do you really believe that the election is going to be decided by people asking 'what do I have to gain?' etc. I beg to differ. I believe that irrespective of all the storms it had to go through, this administration delivered on many fronts. Yes it had its shortcomings, but I would say that the good outweighs the bad. Unfortunately a lot of unreparable harm was done from within.
R. Balzan
Oct 18th 2012, 16:43
The stupid and puerile views and conclusions you penned in this article only go to prove that you are a PN apologist and that you are cut off from everyday reality, or else you are just indulging in a back-scratching exercise.
Rosanne Attard
Oct 18th 2012, 16:09
..continued from earlier afternoon..But this time, I think this doesn't apply at all. With the PL gaining previously PN voters (some of them are even going to be on the PL ticket as candidates), and with a new leader that although 'unexperienced', had convinced all those who had departed from the MLP when Alfred Sant was leader, and returned back to the PL.. ToM, 400 characters are very little! :)
Rosanne Attard
Oct 18th 2012, 17:03
, I think these are important points that one has to mention about what Joseph Muscat has done. So he must be adding more to that number of votes that PL had in 2008.
When you talk about experience, one has to mention also that he already had given good performance when he was a MEP (although he was unexperienced there as well).
Robert Henry Bugeja
Oct 18th 2012, 15:02
Well, what can i say Andrew, your views on what a true democracy is all about is purely tampered by partisanship! ....i wonder if you ever heard the term ...Nobody wins them all!
Joseph Fava
Oct 18th 2012, 14:57
a piece written by a political novice, and not a bright one at that. In his usual fashion Andrew Azzopardi likes to play Mr Know-it-all but if he hasn't grasped that only Labour can lose this election, than it's really oops for his luckless university students. Is it really possible that our Senior Lecturer doesn't realize that the PM is on the ropes and that his government has unravelled ?
John Zammit
Oct 18th 2012, 14:36
What happening in other EU countries is not because they had water and electricity bills lower than we have, but due to the fact that successive Government had kept hiding the their debts. Such as Greece whose debt (at least some of it) goes back the WAR FOR INDEPENDENCE
Tonio Bugeja
Oct 18th 2012, 22:50
wait for it Mtr Zammit.... We will know what is instore for us when the pl takes over and a bailout would be necessary. There was a huge crater in Alfred Sant`s time. I am afraid that the debt this government has wratched up is massive and it is more than we would like to think. Mamma Mia!!!!
Mark Borg
Oct 18th 2012, 13:20
"This election will be decided in the last straight" Wow! What insight! What foresight! Pity this opinion writer is one of a kind.
Rosanne Attard
Oct 18th 2012, 12:35
If you have written this article some five years ago, prior to the 2008 elections, it would have made sense. Because that is what exactly happened, PN winning in the last straght, when everything seemed to go in PL favour. To mention 3 major issues which caused PL to lose at that time, were reception class, overtime rate reduction to an hour pay instead of the current hour and a half pay, and the
Rosanne Attard
Oct 18th 2012, 15:57
.....JPO issue and how it was dealt with). And also there was the problem that the same leader (Alfred Sant), was still the same one who have failed to save his less than two years of governance some ten years before. And with all these reasons, still the PN had won the election by a few votes (difference of 1580).
Joseph Cauchi Senior
Oct 18th 2012, 11:48
I find this article quite accurate.
One must remember that in 2008, the MLP was ahead in the polls by some 15,000 votes just few days before polling and on polling day, the MLP lost those 15,000 + 1,500 = 16,500!
“It-tellieqa sal-barkun”; they say!
JC.
Mr Andrew Camilleri
Oct 18th 2012, 11:28
The only way that the NP can win this election is if there is a change in leader. Gonzi and his team have alienated a huge number of nationalists; they have been at it since Gonzi became leader, first pushing away Dalli and his supporters. The party has lost a lot of support - as can be seen how itis divided in parliament.
James Grech
Oct 18th 2012, 11:11
And your point is?
j brincat
Oct 18th 2012, 11:06
And Mr Azzopardi don't you think that this opinion piece is a bit biased in favour of the P N?
Surely, you can see this, no?
(jb)
Michael Sciortino
Oct 18th 2012, 14:19
This is a pro-PL piece. The underlying message is to the PL not to take anything forgranted and not to be complacent.
Tanja Cilia
Oct 18th 2012, 10:29
If they are born again, they were not always loyal; at least that is what the logical side of my brain tells me. Unless they mean they have had a spiritual rebirth...which means they treat politics as their religion.
j brincat
Oct 18th 2012, 10:16
What I believe the PN will bank on is the inexperience of Joseph Muscat together with a strong campaign based on the guarantee that what ‘I’ have today, will remain"
Have you forgotten the guarantee in writing given by GonziPN to various workers (Go, Air Malta, Drydocks etc)?
What did this mean at the end of the day? NOTHING!
So GonziPN will have tough task to convince us!
(jb)
M Portelli
Oct 18th 2012, 09:51
You do like a swing on the pendulum don't you?What sort of analysis is this? It comes across merely as muddled thinking of the perpetually clueless who insist on putting the paper bag on their heads themselves. One wonders if critical thinking is in deep lock-down or totally moribund locally. Born again Nationalists,what are you tying this to guilt or shame as you ride the current oscillation?
ANTHONY PAVIA
Oct 18th 2012, 16:41
Hey, you and FD must be on the same wavelength. Both correct of course!
Please choose the reason of your report below: