Elections in a foul air

It might be a leak, or possibly a plant to draw Labour out, but sources close to the Nationalist Party head­quarters say that Lawrence Gonzi will set the election for November, possibly on the 10th. Only the Prime Minister knows if that is true but he is unlikely to be talking about it, even to his closest associates.

What is known as a fact is that Dr Gonzi has said that he intends to run the full course.

A November election would be around four months short of that, but within the margin prime ministers set themselves to choose the most auspicious day for their party’s fortune.

Whatever the date, electioneering is already in force, with the heat rising daily about the serious or the slightest of incidents. Above all, it is patently clear that the Government is busting a gut to try to please people who may feel ignored or who are opportunistically seeking handouts at this likely stage.

Also, PN spin is approaching its peak, aiming both to wash away the positive effect for Labour from Dom Mintoff’s funeral and also to scare the electorate with all sorts of stories. The essence of the spin is to persuade people that a Labour government would not simply be a changing of the guards but would spell ill for Malta.

The fact is that an arrogant line does not matter to its creators; Lawrence Gonzi uses it all the time. There are signs that the GonziPN brand will be used again, perhaps slightly altered, in the coming election. The Prime Minister’s are practically the only utterances coming from the Nationalist end, with Minister Tonio Fenech shoring up with the occasional speech or ghosted article on economics and finance.

Back to the election date, the Prime Minister is, no doubt, acutely aware that Labour still lead in the opinion polls. But he will not see that as an impossible hurdle.

He whittled away Labour’s lead in 2008. He must believe – for belief is integral to leadership – that he can do it again. That is why he aims to stay in office as long as possible.

What will continue to occupy his deliberations will be Franco Debono’s stances – for he will adopt more than one – should Parliament meet for some length of time after it reconvenes in October.

The Prime Minister would dearly love to present a Budget. He says it would be an election Budget but the marines will not find it difficult to read between its lines.

The choice is to present the Budget in November then call the election before it is debated or to actually face the danger of debate.

The danger would be Debono but probably only so far as Minister Austin Gatt’s votes are concerned.

In that regard, the likelihood is that Debono will once again abstain, leaving it to the Speaker to save Gatt and the Govern­ment with his obligatory casting vote.

The Government would be safe but would lose tremendous face, making Gonzi­PN seem more tarnished than ever.

Another choice would be to pass a couple of safe resolutions – not those presented by Debono – when Parliament reconvenes and then set the election for November, thereby saving face but ignoring the possibility of ex­ploiting a fresh knifing by the angry backbencher.

Whatever the speculation, the general election is imminent. What one hopes is that it will be a decent affair, rather than the ugly fracas that is already being signalled.

Truly free elections are the basic tool of democracy. If they become a mere barroom brawl, those taking part in it will not have done the people whose vote they seek any favour.

They would simply demonstrate that elections are simply about power, naked and crude. Nothing else. One hopes for the best but the electoral air is already as foul as can be.