Israel: Time to bomb Iran?
Lebanese Shiite men raise their fists up as they listen to a speech via videolink by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah marking Al-Quds (Jerusalem) Day in the southern suburbs of Beirut last Friday. Nasrallah warned that his Lebanese Shiite militia would make the lives of Israelis “a living hell” if it is attacked. Photo: AFP
The debate has intensified in Israel over whether the time has come for Iran’s nuclear facilities to be bombed by the Jewish state. Israeli officials are increasingly talking about this possibility, and are giving the impression that international diplomatic efforts aimed at convincing Iran to end its nuclear programme have achieved nothing.
The Jerusalem Post reported last week that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes that delaying Iran’s nuclear plans for a few years through air strikes “to buy time for regime change or other unforeseen developments” would be worth the risks involved, even if Teheran’s nuclear programme wasn’t completely destroyed.
And two prominent Israeli journalists, Nahum Barnea and Shimon Shiffer, wrote that if it were up to Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak, an Israeli military attack on Iran would be launched in the next few weeks, before the US election in November, in order to put pressure on President Barack Obama to support such a move. However, they are opposed by many Cabinet colleagues as well as the bulk of the Israeli military establishment.
Michael Oren, the Israeli Ambassador to the United States, was probably reflecting his Prime Minister’s views last Wednesday when he told a business breakfast meeting that Israel would be willing to launch air strikes against Iran even if the attack only temporarily delayed Teheran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons. “Diplomacy hasn’t succeeded. We’ve come to a very critical juncture where important decisions have to be made,” he was reported to have said by various sections of the international press.
In another significant development last week, an American blogger, Richard Silverstein – whose blog (a liberal Jewish one) is dedicated to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute – published what he said are Israel’s plans to attack Iran. Silverstein claimed the plans were leaked to him by a “known and trusted source” who is a former Israeli government minister. These plans, Silverstein said, were leaked to his source by an Israeli military officer.
Silverstein said an Israeli attack on Iran will open with a “coordinated strike, including an unprecedented cyber-attack which will totally paralyse the Iranian regime and its ability to know what is happening within its borders”. He also said such an attack will include the launching of dozens of missiles, an aerial attack, a sophisticated cyber attack and the assassination of senior Iranian military and intelligence officials.
The blogger claims the leaks occurred because the majority of senior Israeli military and intelligence officials are against attacking Iran, because the risks are far too great and at best, such a course of action would only delay Iran’s nuclear programme.
Silverstein wrote that such plans show that Israel is prepared to go for a “shock and awe” campaign against Iran and is Netanyahu’s way of showing that Israel can conduct a high-tech war without a high number of Israeli casualties.
Israel’s outgoing Civil Defence Minister Matan Vilnai last week also had his say in the on-going debate, and said an attack on Iran would likely lead to a month-long conflict that would leave 500 Israelis dead. Vilnai told the Maariv newspaper that the fighting would be “on several fronts” with hundreds of missiles fired at Israeli towns and cities in retaliation for an attack on Iran.
Nobody knows whether Israel has made a final decision over whether to attack Iran – US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta said recently he does not believe Israel has made up its mind yet – neither is it clear if the leaked plans for an attack on Iran are indeed genuine. Furthermore, were these plans leaked by Israeli ‘doves’ in order to prevent such attacks, or by ‘hawks’ to exert pressure on the international community, particularly the United States, to clamp down harder on Iran because of its nuclear programme?
Some observers argue that the Israeli government is trying to psychologically prepare Israelis for a strike by giving the impression that military action is inevitable.
Significantly, a poll released last Thursday found 61 per cent of Israelis do not want Israel to strike Iran without US cooperation and 57 per cent believe the Israeli government’s threats are a tactic to pressure the Obama administration, according to the Israel Democracy Institute and Tel Aviv University.
Any Israeli attack on Iran would be costly not only for Israel but for the whole international community, and there are certainly many risks involved. Iran has a whole range of ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel and would no doubt use them against the Jewish state. Iran would also respond through its proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon – which has about 10,000 rocket launchers and which receives $100 million to $200 (€162) million a year from Teheran – and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. This could lead to a prolonged conflict breaking out between Israel and Hezbollah and between Israel and Hamas, which could develop into a broader regional conflict.
Iran could also retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz, where more than a third of the world’s tanker-borne oil passes through, which would have a huge impact on global oil prices. This could lead to a naval conflict between Iran and the US, which is in nobody’s interest. We can also expect more Iranian-sponsored terrorism against Israeli and US targets using Hezbollah, such as the recent attack on Israeli tourists in Bulgaria, and even Iranian missile attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil rich eastern province, which would really cause the crisis to escalate.
If attacked, it is likely that Iran’s desire for nuclear weapons would increase, and the probability is that Iran would stop all cooperation with the international community on its nuclear programme – not that there is much cooperation at the moment – and pull out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
It is important, therefore, that any military attack on Iran would have to really push back its nuclear programme by many years, yet it is not clear whether Israel can do this without US assistance. Whether the US is willing to join Israel in attacking Iran, however, when most experts believe Teheran is still a couple of years away from acquiring a nuclear weapon, is doubtful.
There are no easy answers to whether an Israeli attack on Iran at this point in time would be the right thing to do. There is no doubt that military action carries with it very serious risks, yet Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons would be a very dangerous development.
With the Arab world in turmoil, however, we can ill-afford a long regional conflict which has the potential to spiral out of control. Once there is still some time before Iran does possess nuclear weapons, President Obama must do his utmost to convince Israel that the time is not right for such an attack, and Washington will not, at this stage, participate in any military strikes on Iran.
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Joseph Ellul
Sep 20th 2012, 04:38
As usual, some are blaming Israel. I totally blame the UN and the previous League of Nations. These are toothless organizations dominated by non western states. Iran knows this and plays the US against China and Russia. Politics demand that there will always be a nation or two to remain friendly to the rogue state (Iran). It is also common sense to remain friendly with Iran as both China and Russia are close neighbours.
As for world peace, it will be China that will instigate the excuse of a major war, but it will not throw the first missile. Politics...politics.
Lino Apap
Aug 23rd 2012, 19:19
To M Hills - Israel was immediately recognized after declaring itself a State on 14tth May 1948 by the USA, followed by (ironically) Iran (which had voted against the UN partition plan), Guatemala, Iceland, Nicaragua, Romania, and Uruguay. On 17th May 1948 the Soviet Union also recognized Israel followed by Poland, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, Ireland, and South Africa. Far from not being a recognized State, Israel became a member of the United Nations on 11 May 1949. Only the Arab countries did not.
The Nakba had absolutely nothing to do with Arabs selling swamp, desert and other useless land to the Jews. This selling of land happened while Palestine was still under Ottoman rule in the 19th century and kept on happening right up to WW! and after. During WW1, the British agreed in principle to the setting up of a Jewish Homeland and stated this clearly in the Balfour Declaration of 1917 in recognition of the Jewish support against the Ottomans in WW1. However, the British to their shame gave in to Arab pressure after WW2 and tried to hold on to their mandate in Palestine and prevent the Jews from settling in their homeland as they had promised. The so-called Nakba refers to the setting up of the State of Israel in 1948 and is normally commemorated by the Palestinian Arabs on the 15th May, the day after the Israeli Independence Day on May 14th
Nidal Shawish
Sep 27th 2012, 22:23
Mr. Apap, you forgot to mention that similarly the UN had divided Palestine into a Jewish state and Arab state which is a lot more than what the Palestinians are asking now (only 22% of the land) and still this is refused by Israel to date. Desert and useless land? What about the Palestinians who owned their houses and never sell them to anyone? These houses are now occupied by Jews in the name of a law which exist in Israel called “the absence owners” law which allow any Jew to buy the house from the state because the Palestinian owner was kicked out from his land and not because he or she sold it to the Jews.
M. Hills
Aug 22nd 2012, 12:09
To Lino Apap....first of all it was not recognised by all in 1948.....then to answer the second question...some Arabs had no choice but to sell land to Jews were forced after the "NAKBA" as the arabs call that fateful time when the ashkenazi jews landed in palestine in the 40's and over ran it scaring thousands of palestinians out of their homes fearing rape and death and when they returned they found their homes occupied by these settlers and were left homeless... prisoners in their own land and still are ...many have not forgotten the thousands died in massacres committed by these occupiers determined to occupy palestine....maybe you should be better informed...
M. Hills
Aug 20th 2012, 13:10
Iran has not attacked Israel or threatened to attack it...Israel knows it has the support and backing of the USA not so much support for Israel to attack Iran but it is written in some USA agenda from way back to the Zionist intentions to set up their own state before ww2 even, when from thelate 19th century Zionists lent or gave large sums of money to USA Presidents to finance their wars that the USA in return would always "protect" the what became officially recognised in the 1970s as the State of Israel...so the USA will help bomb Iran along with Israel eventually sending us all into catastrophic economical and human disaster...
gil falzon
Aug 21st 2012, 11:14
Mr. Hills, you obviously don't read the news if you honestly think Iran has not threatened to bomb Israel. Countless times they have stated that their eventual aim was to annihilate and wipe Israel off the face of the earth. Either you don't read widely enough or you are like the many people who continue on the dangerous course of appeasement in the thought that anything Israel or the West does is bad, and anything any other entity does is good.
Lino Apap
Aug 21st 2012, 20:01
Mr. Hills - Israel became "officially recognized" in 1948 after a 2/3 majority in the United Nations voted in favour of setting up the Jewish State and not "in the 1970's". Furthermore it may interest you to know that large tracts of land in Palestine were sold to the Zionists by the Arabs themselves long before WW2 - in fact long before WW1 even. Most of it was swampland or desert and it was only after the Jews worked on it and changed it to cultivated land that the great patriotic Palestinian fervour began.
Nidal Shawish
Sep 27th 2012, 22:32
Mr. Apap - you are either not well informed or you only watch and read pro-Israeli media!
M. Hills
Aug 20th 2012, 12:48
How can anyone with half an ounce of brain and sense support such a crazy idea of Israel's to attack Iran without any provocation from iran except only that Iran wants to have nuclear power same as Israel has...it is Israel provoking Iran through the zionist owned media ...not only that, but this weak Mitt Romney has gone crawling to the Israelis Promising them support if they should attack Iran if he got elected by the Jewish vote in the USA , for selfish reasons in other words.....I ask you..who would want to elect such a stupid man as Romney who would drag us all into a third world war if he should support such a wicked move??
Wenzu Vella
Aug 20th 2012, 10:25
If Iran is not allowed to have nuclear bombs and we all should agree with this. Then why Israel should be allowed to have some 200 nuclear bombs. Wether we like it or not Iran is a Sovereign State and a sovereign state should have the right to defend its self if attacked by an-other foreign power. This is called self defence unless some states qualify for self defence and others do not.
America the so called most powerful country on earth without provocation attacked Iraq. In comparison to the US Iraq was a small and militarily weak country that can be overcome by the superpower in just a few weeks. We all know the result of that. Is anyone sure of what the result would be if Iran was attacked by Israel or even by America or both.
The death and destruction would be enormous to all involved. Those who believe that Iran would capitulate without either an all out or even a limited attack on Israel and the US navy in the gulf would be very much mistaken. If Israel decide to go for a quick result and use atomic bombs what would happen to the radio active nuclear fallout. I leave this thought to those who would like to see an-other war.
John Azzopoardi
Aug 20th 2012, 13:21
Ithink if there is a war and nuclear weapons are used, most of Europe will be impacted with the nuclear fallout reaching our little island as well as most of europe. Thus we need Israel to keep Iran and the ARABS in check.
Mr Tony Gatt
Aug 20th 2012, 22:24
@ John Azzoppardi
If there is a nuclear war you'll have nothing to worry about.
dennis camilleri
Sep 3rd 2012, 08:47
I agee ,israel should not be the only power in the regon to have
nuclear power.China and Russa should sign some kind of
treaty with Iran to assist if attacked. Let see what america will do then.
All israel want is to dominate the Arab world, and the regon, to be a
super power in the area. GOD HELP US.
Jeff Andrews
Aug 20th 2012, 07:37
You have forgotten that Europe failed to deal in the early 30s with the mad house painter from Vienna and 70 million people died. You cannot deal with these crazies and maybe the Jews are the people who know from past experience why you should strike first. We have forgotten that Saddam tried for nuclear weapons and does anyone think he should have been allowed to fulfil his ambition?????
M. Hills
Aug 20th 2012, 12:25
You obviously have not read the REAL history but only the victors' version of history as is evident from your half baked ideas.
gil falzon
Aug 21st 2012, 11:18
Mr. Hill. Please do start reading papers other than the Guardian. Your historical revisionism is quite evidently marring your judgement.
fred fellon
Aug 20th 2012, 04:20
i hope they do it right this time, and soon.
Lino Apap
Aug 19th 2012, 23:20
@Silvio Loporto - just when has Israel kept the ME on the brink of war? When it was attacked by Jordan, Egypt & Syria in 1948 after the UN gave Israel the right to declare statehood? Or was it in 1967 when Israel was again attacked by Egypt, Syria & Jordan? Or was it in the Yom Kippur War in 1973 when Israel was again attacked by an Arab coalition led by - yes you guessed it - Egypt, Syria & Jordan? Or did Israel keep the ME on the brink of war when Iraq invaded Kuwait and shot missiles at Israel when Iraq was attacked by US-led forces? Face up to it - the ME has always been brought to war - not just to the brink of war - but to actual all-out war by the Arab nations that make up the ME. Even this time round, Israel is threatening an attack in the face of the toothless UN which is doing nothing to stop Iran from having nuclear weapons. Iran is a rogue nation that sponsors terrorism and cannot be allowed to have the Bomb - otherwise that will mean having the ME not only on the brink of war but on the brink of nuclear war at that!! Isreal has the right to defend herself and she will do so if she feels that her security has been compromised or is in serious danger of being compromised. Never again will the Jewish people go meekly to their deaths. Iran has to learn the hard way that while the UN may yam and yaw and wallow in inaction, Israel will not. It is not Israel that is keeping the ME on the brink of war - it is rogue nations like Iran with their military and religious ambitions that continue to do so in the tradition of the other neighbouring Arab states.
silvio loporto
Aug 19th 2012, 17:58
What right does Israel have ,to keep the middle east,always on the brink of war?
What do the jews want to prove?
Do they think that the rest of the world owe them something, because of what their nationals passed through during the last war.?
If so why don't they attack the country who brought on them all that misery?
dennis camilleri
Sep 3rd 2012, 08:50
The best comment so far.
Martin Cassar
Aug 19th 2012, 16:41
Why some believe that the Arabs and Muslims (individuals or Muslim states) must be stripped for their right of self-defense against the Zionists nuclear terrorism?. Aren't the Zionists gangs ILLEGALLY occupying other countries lands and killing and terrorizing civilians? No nuclear weapons and nothing will immune the Zionists state before ending their Illegal occupation. Giving up their Biblical fictitious-claims of god promised lands in the only way forward! Period.
dennis camilleri
Sep 3rd 2012, 08:52
Good for you. I agree and I not an Arab or Muslim.
Paul Smith
Aug 19th 2012, 16:12
Yes, i support Israel in what they feel they need to do, they have felt the onslaught on Hezbollah from Lebanon and never been allowed to live at peace. If countries like Iran bordered the UK or USA it would be game over,
i support the right of a Jewish state to exist, without certain Jews we would have never overcome polio and numerous other deadly diseases, we would not have had nuclear power and never had the honor of meeting some very distinguished people who changed the whole world for the better no matter what race or religion
may Israel live long and prosper
Before you jump o the bandwagon about Palestinians - according to Egyptian and Syrian Arabs - they are the gangsters of the middle East
Nidal Shawish
Sep 27th 2012, 22:04
I like the idea of supporting Israel just because without certain Jews we would have never overcome polio and numerous other deadly diseases. As if there were no people from other religions including Christians and Muslims who contributed to the sciences, the arts, and in the field of health. This is an insult to the rest of the world.
Yes you may support Israel but you should also fairly and unbaisly support a Palestinian state unless you are a Jewish extremist. You should also know why Israel has never been allowed to live in peace! Israel will live long and prosper ONLY when a Palestinian state is established. Palestinians are not gangsters but people who are seeking their independence, freedom and liberty like the rest of the world. Sooner or later this will happen whether we like it or not!
Etienne Bonanno
Aug 19th 2012, 14:37
An attack on Iran would not only involve Arab states. Ahmediejad has already stated that if Iran was attacked the Southern European states would be the first to suffer.
Peter Sutton
Aug 19th 2012, 14:36
Don't know about you, but I am more than slightly peeved that Israel's bloodthirsty politicians are now wanting to kill me. And you. And our friends and family, and people all over the world. In fact this nuclear war that Israel is so keen to start will likely end up with most living things on this planet nuked out of existence.
The mad-dog ultra-paranoid Israeli politicians won't admit to having the nuclear weapons of mass destruction the whole world knows they have, yet they create a massive fuss when anybody else wants to develop any nuclear power, whether for energy or weapons. Madness! And now they want to infect the whole world with their sick paranoia.
As the article reveals, most Israelis don't want to start this war (although Israel's history of aggressive illegal attacks is long and horrific) and most military officers oppose it because they know it is madness..
Every human being on earth should do everything possible to deter Israel's leaders from this crazy act of
war that will escalate into global nuclear war and global suicide. Much more important than our local day to day problems and politics.
Silvan Said
Aug 19th 2012, 14:29
Since when is an act of aggression against a sovereign state " ight" depending on the timing? The UN should be alarmed even at the notion that a country contemplates attacking another and should be issuing stern warnings to prevent such insanity.
John Azzopoardi
Aug 19th 2012, 13:27
If its security is at threat, then they will for sure. That is the bottom line. And everyone knows it. The US is not going to do it. So it is really up to them.
Mr Tony Gatt
Aug 19th 2012, 16:16
And when they do, presumably they will be more secure, Yeah, right!
John Azzopoardi
Aug 19th 2012, 23:20
mR. GAtt ...that is not for me or you to day. What you think. It is really up to them because it's their security not yours or mine.
M. Hills
Aug 20th 2012, 12:53
No,mr. Azzopardi, IT IS NOT UP TO THEM, we will all be dragged into it with great consequences and people like you spouting such irresponsible opinions are a danger to society.
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